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利源精制(002501)首次覆盖报告:深加工产能释放 高铁轨交格局破冰

國泰君安 ·  Mar 6, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The rapid expansion of deep processing and production of aluminum profiles is expected to usher in a doubling of explosive growth. High-speed rail transit vehicles will be sampled or break the current monopoly pattern by the end of the year, receiving a share of the 100 billion blue ocean. For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 17.1 yuan. Investment points: For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 17.1 yuan. The market has extremely high doubts about the company's production of high-speed rail vehicles, and we believe that with years of body manufacturing experience, the mature team it has introduced over the past 2 years, the full support of the Shenyang government, and Mitsui Bussan's ability to obtain high-speed rail orders, the company will be fully capable of producing high-speed rail transit vehicles and successfully selling them to international and domestic markets. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of deep processing business is expected to usher in a doubling of explosive growth. The company's net profit for 17-18 is estimated to be 696/1.03 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.57/0.85 yuan. Combining the DCF valuation and PE valuation, the company was given a target price of 17.1 yuan, corresponding to 30XPE in '17, which is lower than the average price-earnings ratio of 39 times lower than the average price-earnings ratio of listed companies related to high-speed rail parts, and a “increase in holdings” rating. Downstream is driving the growth of leading profiles year after year, and the expansion of production capacity in deep processing has ushered in the release of performance. Despite the ups and downs of the domestic macroeconomic environment in the seven years since listing, the company relied on its competitiveness and execution, and its performance increased steadily (CAGR > 25%), and its gross margin and per capita output value rank among the highest in the industry. The new plant in Shenyang was completed in September 2016. Nearly half of the plant is engaged in deep processing, and it is not ruled out that production will continue to expand after subsequent orders are added. The adjustment of the product structure will gradually increase the revenue ratio of deep processing, a high value-added business, and it is expected that deep processing will experience a doubling of explosive growth in '17. “Catfish” swims into the blue ocean of high-speed rail crossings. The company has gradually accumulated high-speed rail delivery vehicles and vehicle production capacity through capital forces such as IPO fund-raising and two fixed increases. We believe that with many years of body manufacturing experience, the team's R&D efforts over the past 2 years, full government support, and Mitsui & Co.'s ability to obtain high-speed rail orders in the global market represented by Southeast Asia, the company will be fully capable of producing high-speed rail delivery vehicles and successfully selling them to the global market. According to estimates, by 2020, the country's average annual demand for new high-speed trains will exceed 2,250, and the average annual demand for urban rail transit trains will exceed 7,200. Catalysts: New orders for deep processing of aluminum profiles for consumer electronics; orders for rail delivery bodies and complete vehicles. Core risk: Production of some production lines at the Shenyang base may be slower than expected.

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