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新力金融(600318)年报点评:金控板块利润略低预期 拟收购支付业务流水达标

招商證券 ·  Feb 21, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The profit of the financial holding sector was 12% lower than the 2016 promise, but performance compensation agreements had little impact on the company. The leasing, pawn, microfinance, guarantee, and P2P businesses in the financial control sector achieved profits of 191 million (up 32.6% year on year), 59 million (up 55.3% year on year), 49 million, 37 million (up 35.9% year on year), and 12 million (year on year increase 72.2%), which contributed 229 million to the company's profit based on shareholding ratio. The net profit after deducting 210 million, which is lower than the 2016 performance promise of 12%. The main reason for the slightly lower expectations is that the scale growth fell short of expectations and interest rates declined. Haike Rongtong, which is to be acquired, has met the 2016 performance standards; there is little problem with meeting the standards in 2017. According to media reports, Haike Finance completed a transaction turnover of 600 billion dollars in 2016, reaching the transaction amount corresponding to the performance promise. At the beginning of the year, Haike Rongtong spent 100 million yuan to acquire 70% of the shares in Shanghai Eun (mobile payment product “UP Weifubao”), which is expected to contribute 120-200 billion dollars to the 2017 transaction flow. Haike Rongtong's transaction turnover in October last year reached around 60 billion dollars in a single month (equivalent to about 800 billion dollars for the whole year). Considering endogenous growth and epitaxial acquisitions, there is little problem with the 1 trillion dollar turnover corresponding to reaching performance promises in 2017. Considering only the individual contributions of the company's existing financial holding and payment business, the net profit for 2017 is estimated to be about 460 million, and the current valuation is 25x17PE. If we consider the synergy between the company's supply and marketing agency, financial control, and payment, the valuation level is even lower. 1) The Anhui Provincial Supply and Marketing Agency currently has a trading turnover of about 500 billion dollars a year. According to net profit estimates of 2/10,000, there is a profit margin of 100 million yuan after introducing Haike Finance, and it is expected to be fully introduced in 1-2 years; 2) Under the company's financial control, including microfinance, P2P, etc., it can cooperate with Haike Finance to develop POS flow loans. Judging from the profit situation of P2P Zhongxin Finance, which was divested by Haike Finance, there is a potential profit margin of about 100 million yuan. Risk warning: The progress of acquisitions and fixed increases will fall short of expectations.

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