Main points of the report
Company profile: comprehensive Dagang, based in South China
Guangzhou Port is the main comprehensive hub port in South China, and the company is the main operator of Guangzhou Port, accounting for 77% of the total cargo throughput in 2016. The company handles a variety of goods, including containers, coal, grain and so on. In recent years, the company's operating income has grown steadily, and the overall profit has declined steadily.
Industry analysis: regional oligopoly pattern, hinterland economy is highly related
The port industry has the following characteristics: 1) the structure of handling cargo is highly related to the economic characteristics of the hinterland; 2) the industry has strong homogeneity, high concentration, showing an oligopoly pattern. Judging from the industry trend, the total throughput benefits from the improvement of domestic bulk demand, and containers are expected to pick up with the strengthening economies of Europe and the United States.
Company analysis: comprehensive domestic trade port, relying on the hinterland, steady growth
The company's revenue and profits mainly come from the loading and unloading business (54% and 83% respectively in 2016). In recent years, the company's throughput has grown steadily, and the utilization rate of container terminal capacity is relatively high (about 100%). The company's economic hinterland is the Pearl River Delta and Guangdong Province, and the high economic growth in the hinterland provides the company with sufficient supply support. The throughput of the company is significantly larger than that of the surrounding ports, and it also competes differently with its competitors: the company is a comprehensive port with a wide variety of throughput and about 75% of the throughput is domestic trade goods.
Fund-raising projects, profit forecast and valuation
1.55 billion of the funds raised are mainly used for the construction of the third phase of the Nansha Port area of Guangzhou Port. It is estimated that the diluted EPS of the company from 2017 to 2019 is 0.11,0.12 and 0.12 yuan respectively. At present, the domestic listed port companies are mainly close to the business structure of Shenzhen Chiwan A, Ningbo Port, Dalian Port and Shanghai Port Group. According to Wande's consensus expectations, the price-to-earnings ratios of the target port companies (Shenchiwan A, Ningbo Port and Shanghai Port Group) in 2017 are 20 times, 27 times and 20 times respectively (Dalian Port does not have data).
If the company is given 25 times PE in 2017, the corresponding share price is 2.71 yuan. The recommended purchase price is 2.29 yuan. Risk Tips:
1. Macro-economic downturn
two。 An emergency at the port.
