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际华集团(601718)公司投资价值分析报告:“智造”迎来军改机遇 定增助力服务业转型

方正證券 ·  Mar 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: (1) Based on intelligent manufacturing, the “superior two, strong three” strategy lays the main tone for the company's development. During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the company's core strategy was “two superior, three strong,” with two referring to the manufacturing industry and three referring to the service industry. That is, based on traditional military and civilian clothing and equipment manufacturing, it is gradually transitioning to a modern service industry that has more potential for revenue and profit growth and is better able to meet the upgraded mass consumer demand, and ultimately forms a benign development situation where the two promote each other in collaboration and promote the preservation and appreciation of the assets of central enterprises. As China's largest military and light industry manufacturer, the company's military market share is 70% +, making it difficult to shake its leading position in the industry. The average refitting of troops every 10 years is expected to bring considerable market growth to the company in the next few years; its comprehensive strength in terms of qualifications, technology, equipment, prices, etc., guarantees the company's ability to receive orders in comprehensive military market-based bidding, and gross margin returns to an upward channel; and the goal of integrating the army's individual soldiers proposed by military reform will bring new growth points and opportunities to the company's military business. (2) The differentiated approach of “sports+tourism”, implementing supply-side reforms in the leisure tourism industry, the company used world-leading emerging extreme sports as entry points, integrated catering, hotels, and commercial formats, and built the “Jihuayuan” commercial real estate comprehensive project with Chongqing and Changchun as pioneers, which not only ensured collaboration with the original main manufacturing industry, but also innovatively met the requirements of supply-side reforms and the increasing consumer demand of the public. Currently, the fixed increase is progressing smoothly, and after funding is available, it will promote the accelerated implementation of the “Jihuayuan” layout in many parts of the country. (3) Land revaluation value provides a solid safety cushion; (4) Strong incentives and hard restraints in the board pilot system to ensure sufficient motivation for management. Profit forecasts and valuation estimates are expected. In 2016-2018, the company achieved operating income of 24 billion yuan, 26.9 billion yuan, 29.8 billion yuan, and net profit of 1,255 billion yuan, 1,597 million yuan and 1,571 billion yuan respectively, and EPS of 0.33, 0.36 and 0.41 yuan respectively, corresponding to 2016-2018 PE of 28.34 times and 25.45 billion yuan, respectively Twice, 22.64 times. First coverage, giving the company a “recommended” rating. Risks suggest that Jihuayuan's operating conditions fall short of expectations, and military revenue is declining

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