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神雾节能(000820)调研报告:钢铁有色固废环保税征收在即 钢铁氢气竖炉冶炼方面有望实现突破

招商證券 ·  Mar 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The high level of executive holdings shows sufficient confidence. The future goal is to build an energy-saving leader with a market value of 100 billion yuan: Mr. Wu Daohong, Mr. Wu Zhiyong, Mr. Lei Hua, Mr. Qian Congxi, and Mr. Liu Anzhi jointly increased the total number of shares of the company through secondary market bidding transactions on February 24, 2017 and February 27, 2017, to a total of 4,130,454 shares, accounting for about 0.65% of the company's total share capital. The total increase amount was 132,711,487.02 yuan. The average price of this increase in executive holdings is the highest point since the company went public under the cover, demonstrating the management team's full confidence in the company's future development. In the future, with the company's advanced and exclusive technology as the foundation, good economy as the main promotion point, and taking advantage of environmental protection policies and supply-side reforms and industrial upgrading, the company has the potential to become one of the leading energy saving and environmental protection leaders with a market value of 100 billion dollars. An environmental tax on non-ferrous solid steel waste will be levied on New Year's Day 2018, and corresponding treatment requirements are expected to increase: According to Presidential Order No. 61 of 2016, the “Environmental Protection Tax Law of the People's Republic of China” was passed on December 25, 2016 and will be implemented on January 1, 2018. It stipulates “a tax amount of 25 yuan per ton for smelting slag, fly ash, furnace slag, and other solid waste (including semi-solid and liquid waste).” Based on the annual production of 800,000 tons of smelting slag, an environmental tax of 20 million yuan must be paid every year. As a comparison, the first phase of Jinchuan treated 800,000 tons of copper slag per year, which could achieve an annual profit tax of 200 million yuan. On the one hand, there are fines, and on the other hand, profits. In this stark contrast, it is expected that the demand for solid waste projects of non-ferrous steel smelting companies will increase significantly in the future. In the future, Shenwu Energy's bulk industrial solid waste sector is expected to usher in rapid development. Hydrogen shaft furnaces are technologically mature and are expected to achieve breakthroughs and seize the trillion-level steel substitution and transformation market: According to data from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association and the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2015, China's crude steel production was 804 million tons, accounting for 50.24% of the world's total crude steel production, ranking first in the world for many years. Affected by the “low, poor, fine, and miscellaneous” characteristics of China's iron ore resources, China's external dependence on iron ore remains high. It reached 84% in 2015, seriously threatening the safety of raw materials in the national steel industry. Furthermore, the blast furnace ironmaking technology commonly used in China consumes a lot of energy. Among them, sintering, coking, and ironmaking processes alone account for 92% of the total energy consumption of a ton of steel, while emissions from these three processes account for 85% of the total emissions of the steel industry. In contrast, Shenwu's energy-saving hydrogen shaft smelting technology has advantages over blast furnace ironmaking: (1) it can use low-grade ore with 40% to 60% iron content to reduce China's long-term external dependence on iron ore; (2) it can reduce energy consumption by 15%, reduce CO2 emissions by more than 60%, and even achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions; and reduce dye emissions such as SOX, NOX, and PM2.5 by more than 90%. (3) Using ordinary coal or ordinary coal or natural gas, coke oven gas, gas gas, etc. as raw materials, there is no need for high energy consumption and high pollution processes such as coking, sintering, or blast furnaces. (4) Good economic benefits. At present, Shenwu's energy-saving hydrogen shaft furnace technology is mature, and only one exemplary project is waiting to open up the market. Based on an investment of 1.5 to 2 billion yuan in the 1 million ton project, the hydrogen shaft furnace market will reach the trillion level, and Shenwu Energy is expected to be the first to achieve project and market breakthroughs in this sector. Maintain a “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. If Shenwu Environmental Protection is a technological revolution in the petrochemical process, Shenwu Energy Saving is a technological revolution in metallurgical production processes. Its production process can solve world-class problems in various smelting such as low-grade ore smelting and slag utilization, and corresponds to a 50-600 billion industry space. Currently, the company also has more than 10 billion on-hand orders. After the launch of the Jinchuan project in December 2016, a large number of new orders can be expected to be fulfilled in 2017. We expect the company to achieve net profit of 63 billion yuan and 1.11 billion yuan respectively from 2017 to 2018. Currently, the market value of 23 billion yuan corresponds to 36 times the 2017 PE valuation and 21 times the 2018 PE valuation, but with a high level of technological leadership, the company will enjoy the 50-600 billion dollar market for a long time, so it can be given The 2018 PE valuation is 30 times, corresponding to a market value of 33 billion yuan and a target price of 51.8 yuan. Risk warning: There is some uncertainty about future order acquisition and construction process

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