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国盛金控(002670)年报点评:券商业务爆发在即 金控布局稳步推进

國泰君安 ·  Feb 28, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: With the gradual establishment of the management level of Guosheng Securities and the significant increase in capital strength, efforts will be made to develop securities businesses such as asset management, fixed income, and investment banks in the future to promote rapid growth in performance. Maintain the target price of 46.05 yuan/share. Key investment points for increasing holdings: maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of 46.05 yuan/share. In 2016, the company achieved total revenue/net profit of 16.42/498 million yuan, +56.44%/+1803.97% year-on-year; total operating income/net profit in the fourth quarter was 540/266 million yuan, respectively, +3.34%/+98.24% over the previous quarter; the month-on-month improvement in the fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to strong growth in Guosheng Securities's performance after increasing capital strength. With the gradual establishment of the management of Guosheng Securities and the significant increase in capital strength, efforts will be made to develop securities businesses such as asset management, fixed income, and investment banking in the future, which is expected to drive rapid growth in performance. As a result, the company's 2017-18 EPS was raised to 1.10/1.29 yuan (0.89/1.05 yuan before adjustment), and the target price was maintained at 46.05 yuan/share, corresponding to 42 X PE in 2017, and increased holdings. The capital bottleneck has been lifted, the management mechanism is expected to improve, and the securities business is about to explode. The rapid development of the securities business drove the company's performance in the fourth quarter of 2016 to increase by nearly 100% month-on-month. The performance performance far surpassed that of major listed brokerage firms. This development trend will continue in the future. In 2016, Guosheng Securities added more than 6 billion yuan in capital through fixed increases, corporate bonds, etc., and completed a major change in core management. In the future, Guosheng Securities will focus on developing businesses that consume human capital, such as asset management, fixed income, two finance, and investment banks. It can give full play to the advantages of its own private sector mechanism and listing platform and promote the expansion and strengthening of the brokerage business. The dividend plan shows shareholders' confidence, and the financial control layout is progressing steadily. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders and use the capital reserve fund to transfer 6 shares to all shareholders for every 10 shares. This dividend plan fully demonstrates the majority shareholders' confidence in the future development of the company. The company previously entered the consumer finance market through the acquisition of 5% of Qudian's shares and initiated the establishment of an Internet small loan company. Taking advantage of the company's majority shareholders' resource advantages in the Internet field, the future layout of Internet financial control is worth looking forward to. Risk warning: Financial license approval risks, sharp decline in brokerage performance

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