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德尔股份(300473):新业务静待落地开花 公司向综合型解决方案服务商转型

廣發證券 ·  May 31, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Fuel consumption regulations+electrification+intelligence. EPS and EHPS accelerate the replacement of the HPS electric power steering system EPS or the electro-hydraulic power steering system EHPS to achieve steering by controlling the motor to generate assistance and then achieve steering. Compared with the HPS hydraulic power steering system, it is more fuel-efficient than the HPS hydraulic power steering system. We believe that the penetration rate of EPS and EHPS is expected to increase further in the future, mainly because: 1. Global fuel consumption regulations are stricter, and EPS is more fuel-efficient; 2. Electric or electrohydraulic power steering systems are a must for electric vehicles and intelligent driving. The company is actively carrying out product transformation and upgrading, and the new business is waiting to blossom. The company is a leading domestic automobile steering pump leader. Its profitability and capacity utilization rate have remained at a high level for a long time. In 2016, the company's gross margin and net profit margin were as high as 38.5% and 18.1%, respectively. Faced with changes in industry demand, the company actively transforms and responds by utilizing its many years of accumulation and past experience in participating in important projects. We believe that the company's biggest focus in the future is electric pumps with high technical barriers. The penetration rate and double increase in bicycle value brought about by markets such as electric pumps, EHPS, EPS motors, and transmission mechanical pumps will provide the company with broad development space. The company focuses on its long-term future layout. The acquisition of CCI is the first step in extension. In the context of the rise of independent passenger car brands, the company may benefit from localized replacement of components. We compared the growth paths of international parts giants. Based on the company's actual situation, we determined that the company is expected to use electric pumps as a breakthrough, launch the first epitaxial expansion with the acquisition of CCI, break out of the past single steering pump business, and transform into a diversified integrated auto parts solution service provider. Investment advice companies used to be automobile steering pump leaders, and their management capabilities and profitability remained at a high level for a long time. At the same time, the company has a number of automotive electronics technology reserves, and upgrade product projects such as electric pumps are progressing smoothly. It has broken through the steering system and entered the transmission and braking system. The internal generation has high growth. After acquiring CCI, the company will achieve endogenous and epitaxial two-wheel drive development. Without considering the acquisition of CCI, we expect the company's EPS in 17-19 to be 1.32, 1.94, and 2.64 yuan respectively; considering the CCI delivery schedule, we expect the company's EPS in 17-19 to be 1.43, 2.57, and 3.34 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risks indicate that the growth of the main business falls short of expectations; the expansion of new projects falls short of expectations; and post-acquisition integration risks.

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