Main points of investment:
Layout pickup, axle, bus three major areas. Dawning has three core businesses, pickup trucks, axles and passenger cars. The revenue scale and gross profit margin of the axle business are relatively stable. In the past 17 years, the company has launched more new products and further expanded Guangzhou Auto, Chery, brilliance and other new models. We expect revenue growth of about 15%. Pickup and bus market belongs to the traditional market, and the replacement of new energy models will provide a great opportunity for the company to increase its market share and revenue scale.
In April, the new energy bus market segment first. In the promotion catalogue of 1-4 batches in 17 years, there are 10 dawning new energy buses, including 3 pure electric buses and 7 hybrid buses, most of which are 10-meter models, which meet the needs of market promotion for 17 years, among which pure electric models can get 1.2 times subsidy, and hybrid models equipped with lithium manganate batteries can obtain the maximum economic benefits. In April 17, dawning Co., Ltd. sold 276 plug-in hybrid buses, ranking first in the country. New energy buses are mainly in urban public transport, which is the old market of dawning. We expect the company's sales of new energy buses to be about 1500 this year, bringing a significant improvement in performance.
Pickup business is in the growth period, new energy logistics vehicles may bring increment. The company's pickup truck is in a period of rapid growth, with sales of 14000 pickup trucks in 16 years, an increase of 40.7% over the same period last year. The subsequent construction of the N3 platform will help the business maintain a high growth rate. At the same time, the trend of electrification of logistics vehicles is obvious, the subsidy is high, and the bicycle is profitable.
We expect dawning to make use of the existing market to develop new energy logistics vehicle business will bring higher performance growth.
Sell the equity of Huanghai Automobile, stop losses and increase investment income. On February 23, dawning issued an announcement to sell a 100% stake in Dalian Huanghai Automobile at a price of 1.18 billion to Dalian Xinminya Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. Dalian Huanghai Automobile assets total 1.08 billion yuan, 16 years revenue 13.21 million, net profit-151 million yuan. This transaction will help the company to optimize the allocation of resources. Huanghai Motor has 16 years of management and financial expenses of nearly 120 million yuan, and the sale of this part of the loss-making assets will significantly increase the dawning actual profit value; in addition, the completion of this transaction is expected to increase the pre-tax investment income by about 500 million yuan, significantly improving the 17-year performance level.
Huatai Motor owns dawning shares. Dawning Group signed the Equity transfer Agreement between Liaoning Shuguang Group Co., Ltd. and Huatai Automobile Group Co., Ltd. on February 28, transferring 14.49% of dawning shares held by dawning Group to Huatai Motors, and entrusting another 6.78% of the voting rights to Huatai Automobile (agreed to transfer the 6.78% shares after the expiration of the sales limit), priced at 23.21 yuan per share. It is much higher than the closing price of dawning shares of 10.01 yuan per share on May 12. After the completion of this equity change, Huatai Motor holds 21.27% of the total share capital of the listed company and will become the controlling shareholder of the listed company.
Investment strategy and rating. The company's axle business has grown steadily, new energy buses and logistics vehicles will bring a large increase, and the performance has been driven by investment income for 17 years. Huatai Automobile has entered the dawn to open a new chapter.
We estimate that the EPS of the company in 17-19 will be 0.80,0.21,0.25,12.46,48.16,39.41times respectively corresponding to the closing price on May 12, and give the company 50 times valuation in 18 years, corresponding to the target price of 10.50 yuan, covering for the first time and giving the overweight rating.
The risk increases. Market promotion is not as expected, policy risk