Abstract: the purchase date of molded convertible bonds is Friday, June 2, 2003. The online purchase is offline, the offline margin ratio is 10%, the online purchase limit is 20 million yuan, and the offline application range is 3000-50 million yuan. It is worth noting that each institutional account can only apply offline once, avoiding dozens of applications from some accounts during the issuance of camel convertible bonds, or increasing the success rate. Offline purchase or can cover the cost of capital, can participate appropriately. The company is the leading enterprise in the automotive bumper market segment, with customers concentrated in middle and high-end areas, such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz, with a total market capitalization of 4.9 billion yuan and a PE-TTM of 28X, which is relatively small and moderate compared with comparable companies.
Specifically:
1. Analysis of terms and purchase time of convertible bonds
The scale is small and the debt is low. The issue scale of molded convertible bonds is 813.66 million yuan, with a term of 6 years, and the main body AA and debt AA cannot be pledged according to the new rules of Zhongdeng pledge. The coupon is 0.5%, 0.7%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 1.8% and 2%. The maturity redemption price is 110 yuan (including the final interest). The maturity yield of pure debt is 2.48%, which is higher than the YTM issued by Yongdong, Camel, Everbright and Hongtao, and equivalent to Haiyin. If the spot yield of 6-year AA corporate bonds is 5.77%, the debt bottom is 83.06 yuan, which is lower than that of most stock convertible bonds.
The transfer stock price is 8 yuan per share, and the terms are within the rules. Six months later, it entered the conversion period, and the initial conversion price was 8.00 yuan per share, which was 9% premium to the average price of the previous trading day, and the dilution rate to the total equity was 12%. The downrevision clause (15-30pr 85%) is moderate; the early redemption clause (20-30130%) and the resale clause (30jue 70%) are well-regulated.
T day is June 2 (Friday), online offline purchase, offline margin ratio 10%. The pre-allotment subscription date / online subscription date for ① 's original shareholders is June 1 (Thursday, TMUE 1). The amount of convertible bonds can be allotted according to the proportion of 1.1344 yuan of convertible bonds per share. The purchase and payment date is T day (June 2, Friday), and the unallotted offline subscription funds will be refunded on June 7, 2017. Under ②, investors apply for a lower limit of 30 million yuan (300000), an upper limit of 50 million yuan (500000), and a margin ratio of 10%. The upper limit for online investors in ③ is 200000 tickets (20 million yuan). On June 8, 2017, the registered company unfrozen the unsuccessful purchase funds.
It is worth noting that each institutional investor can only submit one "offline application form". The proprietary account of institutional investors or each product managed to participate in this offline purchase can only use one securities account. If an institutional investor submits two or more "offline application forms", that is, multiple securities accounts with the same "account holder name" and "valid identity document number" in the securities account registration data, the lead underwriter has the right to determine that one of them is valid and the rest is deemed invalid.
two。 Pricing analysis and investment advice
Each institutional account can only apply for purchase offline once, but the funding is relatively loose, and the success rate is expected to be about 0.24%. Jiangyin Molding Group, the largest shareholder of molding technology, has a stake of 33%. We expect to participate in the placement. With reference to the 78% placement ratio of Camel and Yongdong shareholders, we expect the placement ratio of molded convertible bonds shareholders to be about 70%. For the prediction of institutional investors' purchase funds, on the one hand, each institutional account can only apply offline once, or improve the success rate; on the other hand, the funds are relatively loose in the short term, and the funds facing new disturbances are less than camel convertible bonds. Molded convertible bonds require each institutional investor to submit only one "offline application form". Camel convertible bonds of similar size (720 million yuan) have a nominal effective purchase amount of 102 billion yuan, of which 2028 households are offline. 16% of the accounts are applied for two or more times, and the effective purchase fund deducting repeated purchase is about 86 billion yuan. From a financial point of view, Camel convertible bond purchase time is the end of the first quarter, when the capital interest rate is much higher than at the beginning of June. Overall, we expect the frozen funds to be lower than camel convertible bonds at around 100 billion, with a corresponding success rate of 0.24%.
The theoretical price is about 103 to 105 yuan. Molding Technology closed at 6.87 yuan on May 26, with a volatility of 21% to 22% in the last 6 months and 12 months, with an annual volatility of 22%, a yield of 3.68% on 6-year bonds and a stock price of 6.75% to 7.00 yuan. calculated by using Bmurs formula, the theoretical value of molded convertible bonds is about 103% to 105 yuan, and the corresponding conversion premium is 21% to 22%.
According to the premium rate, the price center is 106 to 107 yuan. According to the closing price on May 26, the conversion value of molded convertible bonds is 86 yuan. Horizontal comparison, Gree convertible bond parity of 85 yuan, premium rate of 27%, camel convertible bond parity of 81 yuan, premium rate of 29%. If the share price of molding technology is 6.75-7.00 yuan after listing, the conversion premium rate is 20%-28%, and the corresponding convertible bond price center is 106-107 yuan.
Investor purchase suggestion: offline purchase or can cover the cost of capital, can participate appropriately. The proportion of offline deposit is 10%. If the listing price of molded convertible bonds is 107 yuan, when the success rate is 0.24%, the 7-day annualized rate of return is 8.8%; if the listing price is 105 yuan, the 7-day annualized rate of return is 6.3%. It can be seen that offline purchase may cover the cost of capital, so it is recommended that institutional investors participate offline and win the game.
Risk tips: the stock market falls, the winning rate is low, the price on the first day of listing is low, and there is insufficient liquidity after listing.