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立昂技术(300603):厉兵秣马 享新疆安防盛宴

興業證券 ·  May 15, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points The security market in Xinjiang is about to explode, and the company's security business has ushered in a good opportunity for development. The inauguration of the new leaders of the autonomous region provided policy support for the explosion of the industry, and the 50% increase in fixed asset investment in Xinjiang in 2017 and the 71% growth in the information transmission computer service and software industry provided a favorable external environment for the explosion of the security industry. The exponential increase in the amount of PPP projects in Xinjiang since the beginning of 2017 and the intensive implementation of orders for Xinjiang security projects from related listed companies all indicate the boom in the security industry in Xinjiang. Industry dividends are expected to spur an explosion in the company's security business. The company's equity incentives are sufficient and execution is strong. Prior to its listing, Leon Technology had already been able to motivate the company's core personnel through two employee-holding companies. Facing a rare historical opportunity in the security industry in Xinjiang, the company unified its ideas and actively developed the market. In March alone, two security projects were announced, totaling more than 400 million yuan (annual revenue of 360 million in 2016), reflecting the company's excellent execution and strong ability to take orders. As security construction in Xinjiang continues to advance, the company is expected to continue to expand its territory with sufficient localization implementation capabilities, deep customer resources, and efficient execution. Financial indicators show that the company can expect high growth. At the end of the first quarter, projects such as the company's inventory (the contract cost of the commencement project will be carried over to inventory first), prepayments (material payments required for project development), and other receivables with high bid deposits all increased significantly compared to the end of 2016, indicating that the company's business is progressing smoothly and the execution of the project is sufficient. This lays the foundation for high revenue growth in the future. Profit forecast and investment advice: The company's EPS for 2017 to 2019 is estimated to be $0.62, $1.07, and $1.7, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's high growth and performance flexibility during this stage of the Xinjiang security market explosion, and give it an “increase in weight” rating. Risk warning: The progress of the project falls short of expectations, and human resources cannot keep up with the progress of the project.

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