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模塑转债投资价值分析:赚点辛苦钱

Analysis on the investment value of molded convertible bonds: earn some hard money

興業證券 ·  May 31, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Keystone

1. Comments on the terms of convertible bonds: the company's credit rating is AA, and the debt bottom protection is general. There is no need to repeat the additional terms and conditions.

2. Brief comments: Jiangnan Molding Technology Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the domestic automotive plastic accessories industry, with auto bumpers and other automotive accessories as the business core; in 2013, the company entered the hospital and health consulting industry. at present, it has formed a "bumper + hospital" double main business model. The company's operating income and return net profit have declined in the past two years, but the bumper business is sound, BMW-Mercedes-Benz and other cooperation object business is growing rapidly, profit growth is expected; the hospital business has a loss in the early stage, but the profit release is expected. The company pressure lies in 1) product price fluctuation, and the company's automobile business products are relatively simple, which makes the bumper supply price fluctuation may have a greater impact on the company's profitability; 2) the hospital project investment cost is large, and it takes time to release profitability. at present, it is still in a state of loss, which has a great impact on the overall profitability of the company. 3) the three fees are relatively high, and with the promotion of business, the company's three expense rates have increased significantly in the past two years, which may bring cost and debt pressure.

3. The winning rate is estimated to be about 0.2%, and the listing price is expected to reach more than 105, so you can earn a lot of money by playing new games. Molding technology is the shareholder of Jiangnan water, and the company is familiar with convertible bonds. It is estimated that the large shareholders will fully participate in the placement, and the other major shareholders are all funds, which will basically participate in full, and it is estimated that the top 10 shareholders will basically participate in full, so the size left for the market is about 250 million. From the perspective of new participation, it is estimated that the probability of more than 3000 households is small, so the nominal amount of frozen funds is less than 150 billion (all top participation), and the success rate is less than 0.2%. However, if camel shares are compared, considering that the new income is limited, the number of institutions that may participate may be less than 2500, so the success rate may exceed 3000. There are constraints in the growth space of the company's traditional business, and the new aspect of the hospital is still in the investment stage, coupled with the current market style, the short-term stock price elasticity is general. However, recently, the company's shares have continued to fall, reaching the level of the 2015 stock market crash, and it is estimated that the company believes that there is a certain overfall, so convertible bonds are issued at a small premium. The current parity level is 86, which is close to Gree, Camel, Sany and so on. It is estimated that the listing position of the company's convertible bonds will be better than that of camels. It is not a big problem to exceed 105 in static state, but it is difficult to reach the level of 110.

According to the aforementioned winning rate and the price on the first day of listing, according to the upper limit, the new income of participation is about 5000 yuan, and the funds are frozen by 5 million. In the near future, the capital area is relatively abundant, so it is not difficult to borrow money. After deducting the cost of capital, the income may be at 1max 2000 yuan. If you can earn hard money, you can participate properly.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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