Core ideas:
The largest power generation enterprise in Shanxi Province, accelerated layout New Energy Business Company is currently the largest thermal power enterprise in Shanxi Province, with a total installed capacity of 7.18 million kilowatts; the controlling shareholder is the largest coal enterprise in Shanxi, which is rich in high-quality thermal coal resources. In the case of increasing downward pressure on the economy and weak demand in the coal power market, the company has accelerated the layout of the new energy industry and has installed 550000 million units in the grid. Among them, wind power * * million kilowatts, photovoltaic power generation * * million kilowatts.
Continuous introduction of industrial policies to improve the development environment of the new energy industry
Policies such as renewable energy planning, the 13th five-year Plan for the development of wind and solar power, and the green power certificate subscription transaction for renewable energy have been introduced to further improve the development environment of the renewable energy industry. long-term benefits for the sustainable development of wind power, photovoltaic and other renewable energy industries. According to the guidance on the Establishment of a Target guidance Mechanism for the Development and Utilization of Renewable Energy, the proportion of electricity consumption of hydropower and renewable energy in Africa will be 9% in 2020, and the total amount of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2016 will be 307.2 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 5% of the total electricity generation, and there is still a lot of room for increase.
Increase the financial sector business and open up new profit growth points
The company has actively created the financial sector, expanded the field of financial services, and further enhanced the company's market competitiveness and profitability by participating in holding financial leasing companies and financial companies, which has formed a new profit growth point. In 2016, Tongmei Zhangze (Shanghai) Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and Datong Coal Mine Group Finance Co., Ltd. achieved net profits of 163 million yuan and 451 million yuan, respectively.
Shanxi was shortlisted for the first batch of electricity sales companies and qualified to participate in Shanxi power market transactions in order to adapt to the power system reform, further strengthen the professional management of electricity sales business, and set up electricity sales companies in advance. Shanxi Province was shortlisted for the first batch of electricity sales companies to participate in electricity market transactions, allowing annual electricity sales to be capped at 2.4 billion million hours. In 2016, the electricity sales company made a profit of 19 million yuan.
Profit forecast and valuation:
It is predicted that the net profit of the company from 2016 to 2018 is 145 million yuan, 240 million yuan and 390 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding earnings per share are 0.13,0.21 and 0.34 yuan respectively. Combined with the relative valuation results, the overall development trend of the thermal power industry, the company's stable industry position and "one body, two wings + multiple drivers"
The strategy is expected to cover Zhangze Power for the first time, giving Zhangze a "neutral" rating, corresponding to a share price of 3.90 yuan in 2017.
Risk Tips:
(1) the risk of abandoning wind and light, (2) the risk of rapid decline in thermal power utilization hours, and (3) the risk of rapid rise in coal prices.
