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金鸿能源(000669)公告点评:半年业绩预告同比增长30%-50% 拟更名金鸿控股打造能源、环保平台

廣發證券 ·  May 12, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Downstream customer gas consumption has increased, and the half-year performance forecast is up 30%-50% year on year. The company predicts 2017 semi-annual results. Net profit is expected to be 171-198 million yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 30%-50% over the previous year. The company achieved quarterly net profit of 0.86 to 113 million yuan in the second quarter, a significant increase of 79.2%-135.4% over the previous year. The company's gas distribution business in Hebei and Shandong accounts for more than 50%. Affected by the continued stricter environmental protection policies in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding regions and the acceleration of supply-side reforms, coal-to-gas has accelerated downstream gas consumption growth. Meanwhile, the implementation of projects such as Hebei Kuancheng, Hunan Leiyang, and Suzhou Tianhong, which were acquired in the second half of last year, contributed to performance. The company plans to change its name to Jinhong Holdings and strengthen natural gas source development and new energy layout. The company announced that it plans to change the name of the securities from “Jinhong Energy” to “Jinhong Holdings.” In recent years, the company has continued to expand its business scope through external mergers and acquisitions. It has acquired Zhengshi Tongchuang to enter the environmental protection business, and also has a presence in upstream natural gas development, new energy, and new energy storage. This name change positions the company as an energy and environmental protection platform, and the upstream and downstream integration strategy of the industrial chain will be strengthened. Chen Yihe, the actual controller of the company, is the chairman of China National Reserve Energy. The State Reserve Energy mainly engages in upstream, middle and downstream integrated businesses such as exploration, development, reserve, storage, transportation, energy and chemicals, etc. of petroleum and natural gas, and is rich in resources at all ends of the energy industry chain. The conversion of coal to gas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is accelerating, and the gas distribution business is expected to accelerate growth. This year's government work report raised smog control to a new level, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection stated many times that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is under high pressure and tasks are heavy. We expect that smog control in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is still the core content of current environmental management, and natural gas substitution is clearly positioned as one of the key solutions for managing scattered coal. Considering that the company has huge space for coal-to-gas distribution areas such as Hebei and Shandong, etc., the company's gas consumption growth rate is expected to increase in the future. The company's current gas supply is only 20% of its gas supply capacity. Future gas volume growth will drive rapid growth in profit before tax. Due to the acceleration of epitaxial distribution and the increase in demand for coal-to-gas conversion, the company's “buy” rating is expected to be 0.69, 0.94, and 1.26 yuan in EPS in 17-19, and the corresponding PE of 21, 16, and 12 times. As a cross-regional private gas operator, the integrated layout of the company's middle and downstream pipeline networks has been improved, benefiting from increased smog control. The growth rate of gas sales in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is expected to increase. The company continues to increase the pace of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, giving it a “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the progress of mergers and acquisitions is lower than expected; the situation in the downstream industry has been sluggish for a long time; the progress of coal to gas is lower than expected;

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