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久其软件(002279)调研简报:精耕细作终成细分龙头 关注“久其+”生态

民生證券 ·  May 21, 2017 00:00  · Researches

1. Event Overview Recently, we conducted research on the company and had a detailed understanding of the company's business and future strategic development. 2. Analysis and judgment are deeply involved in informatization in the government and enterprise industry, and achieved high performance growth in 2016. As a leading management software provider in China, the company is committed to providing information products, solutions and management consulting services to government departments and enterprise groups, and has maintained its leading position in the industry in the traditional reporting business field in China. In 2016, the company's operating income was 1.31 billion yuan, up 84.29% year on year, net profit was 219 million yuan, up 61.96% year on year, and net profit after non-return was 212 million yuan, up 73.52% year on year. We believe that the company is deeply involved in the field of informatization in the government and enterprise industry, and has strong customer business stickiness in the fields of finance, transportation, statistics, people's livelihood, etc. In the future, on the basis of consolidating the existing business of e-government and group control, we will actively expand new digital communication services and build and improve the “Jiuqi+” ecosystem, and performance is expected to grow relatively rapidly. Focus on e-government and consolidate traditional advantages. Through years of deep cultivation in the field of e-government, companies have accumulated and shared data from government departments, social organizations, and enterprises and institutions to form a big data resource pool. In 2016, the company's e-government business achieved revenue of 539 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101%. Currently, the company has a presence in the fields of government finance (big data on financial accounts), statistics industry (census data processing), education industry (education big data, overall solutions for colleges and universities), livelihood security (digital civil affairs), and precise poverty alleviation (building file cards, portraits of people). We believe that with strong government business stickiness, continuous project acquisition, stable revenue, and certain entry barriers, the company is expected to achieve breakthroughs in transportation and financial business in the future. Rooted in group management and control, expanding and segmenting business in the group control industry, the company uses the supply of leading domestic report management as its business cornerstone, and collects and processes enterprise-grade big data resources obtained from many years of industry operations, forming a data pool integrating external data (Internet data, industry data, market-based data, etc.), internal management data (business planning and strategy, marketing and promotion, human resources and performance, etc.), and internal production control data (design, production, supply chain, etc.), providing enterprises with a big data management platform, integrated business operation platform, and unified group cloud service platform. In 2016, the Group's management business achieved revenue of 206 million yuan, an increase of 34% over the previous year. We believe that through the transformation of the platform architecture, the company has initially formed a scientific and complete production, operation and business system as a collaborative system. In the future, its business reach is expected to extend to many segments such as construction, energy, military industry, manufacturing, etc., laying a firm foundation for providing new profit growth points in the future. Extension has developed a digital communication business, with remarkable integration results. Focus on the acquisition process of Shanghai Yitong. In 2016, the company acquired Ruiyi Hengdong, a manufacturer focusing on social marketing, and integrated Yiqilian Technology, Jiuqi Zhitong, and Ruiyi Hengdong to form “Jiuqi Digital Communications”, forming a uniquely positioned communication brand. In 2016, the company's digital communication business achieved revenue of 562 million yuan, an increase of 91% over the previous year. Currently, the company is acquiring and integrating Shanghai Yitong, which is expected to supplement overseas business. We believe that the company has successfully integrated the digital communication business sector, achieved complementary advantages, effectively created a closed loop of “customer discovery - effective communication - precise access - action transactions - remarketing”, and promoted collaboration and win-win in the industrial ecosystem. In the future, the accurate marketing and information distribution business of overseas enterprises is expected to become a new flashpoint. 3. Profit forecast and investment recommendations expect the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 to be 0.55 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.96 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to the _supMem category] will be 23X, 16X, and 13X. Based on strong government and enterprise customer stickiness and steady growth in traditional business, and huge room for growth in integrated digital communication business, the company was given 30-35 times PE in 2017, and a reasonable valuation of 16.5 yuan to 19.25 yuan for the next 6 months, covering the first time, the company was given a “highly recommended” rating. 4. Risk warning: policy progress falls short of expectations; technology research and development is not as fast as expected; and business integration is not ideal.

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