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南兴装备(002757)公司快报:产品线布局完善 定制家具整体解决方案供应商

華金證券 ·  May 18, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The main investment product categories are complete, and the comprehensive advantages are obvious: the company achieved revenue of 139 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 48.85% over the previous year; net profit of the mother was 17.33 million yuan, an increase of 71.04% over the previous year. The company expects to achieve net profit of 3627-45.34 million yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 20-50% over the previous year. The company's products target the panel furniture industry. The main products include five series of automatic edge banding machines, CNC board saws, multi-row multi-axis drills, precision table saws, and processing centers; the company has a complete range of products, which can help customers upgrade from stand-alone mode to more flexible connected production, providing overall solutions for intelligent production of customized furniture. The boom in custom-made furniture continues: in 2005, domestic production of wood-based panels and solid wood boards remained the same. By 2011, the production of wood-based panels was already more than double that of solid wood boards, and the growth rate of wood-based panel production was significantly higher than that of solid wood boards. The domestic custom furniture industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and all custom furniture uses wood-based panels as raw materials. Customized furniture is popular in the furniture market and has gradually expanded to whole-house customization because it meets the needs of young people and small-sized residents to improve space utilization, and has continuously increased its market share and market position. Listed domestic custom furniture companies, such as Sophia, Shang Pin Home Delivery, and Hollyke, have maintained a relatively rapid and continuous increase in overall revenue of around 40% in the past five years. Customized furniture is mostly of many varieties, small quantities, and pursuit of environmental protection and quality, which clearly drives the demand for high-end domestic woodworking equipment; the company's products target the domestic middle and high-end market, and will benefit from the booming development of the custom furniture industry in the long term. Demand for numerical control equipment is strong, and market concentration will increase: the domestic woodworking machinery and equipment industry has excess capacity at the low end, the middle and high-end production capacity is insufficient, and mainly foreign brands and domestic brands with a certain degree of competitiveness occupy the market. Currently, the market share of local brands in the middle and high-end markets is still low, so there is a lot of room for improvement. Although foreign brands of woodworking machinery and equipment are technologically advanced and of excellent quality, at present, the major domestic leading enterprises have improved markedly in key technologies, the gap is gradually narrowing, and they have a competitive advantage in product cost performance and localized services. The domestic market has moved from price and marketing to a development path that puts technology and service first. The company has accumulated 20 years of industry experience in the R&D and production of panel furniture machinery. Many products are at the leading level of technology in China, and some technologies have reached the advanced level of similar international products, and can replace imported equipment. As the company introduces new high-end CNC products to the market, such as a new high-speed computerized board saw, a six-sided CNC drill, and a pass-through CNC drilling center, etc., technological differences will increase the brand premium of the company's products, thus occupying a high technological position and gaining more market share under the trend of flexible equipment and numerical control. Investment suggestion: The popularity of custom-made furniture can still be maintained. At the same time, the increase in real estate sales in third- and fourth-tier cities and the transformation of shantytowns will all be a strong driving force for the growth of the domestic furniture market. The company's products are positioned as domestic high-end woodworking machinery brands, and there is a lot of room for improvement in product penetration. We forecast the company's operating income for 2017-2019 to be 644 million yuan, 833 million yuan and 1,078 million yuan respectively, and earnings per share of 0.86 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively. Given an investment rating of “increased holdings - A”, the six-month target price is 38.59 yuan, which is equivalent to a price-earnings ratio of 45 times that of 2017. Risk warning: Increased competition in the industry has led to a decline in gross margin; the slowdown in the growth rate of the real estate market affects demand in the furniture market; the risk of export contraction, etc.

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