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恒通股份(603223)季报点评:业绩符合预期 LNG贸易物流业务稳步发展

申萬宏源研究 ·  May 3, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: The company's net profit increased 37.89% year-on-year in Q1 in 2017, in line with our expectations. The company's 2017 Q1 revenue was 702 million (YoY +86.12%, QoQ -6.44%); operating costs were 678 million (YoY +90.70%, QoQ -6.27%). The year-on-year increase in revenue was mainly due to the steady development of the company's LNG trade logistics business, a steady increase in natural gas sales, and a rise in natural gas prices. The company's three fees decreased month-on-month, and its profitability increased steadily, achieving net profit of 16.05 million yuan (YoY +37.89%, QoQ +18.59%). It is expected to follow Sinopec's strategic layout and achieve offsite expansion. The company and Sinopec's natural gas company formed a joint venture to establish Huaheng Logistics Co., Ltd., and the company holds 73% of the shares. The first phase of Sinopec's liquefied natural gas projects in Qingdao (Phase I), Guangxi and Tianjin is designed to handle 3 million tons/year. Among them, the Guangxi project was put into operation in April 2016, and the Tianjin project is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2017. The company is expected to rely on Sinopec's establishment of subsidiaries to cooperate in offsite expansion and maintain performance growth. Operating cash flow increased significantly in 17Q1 in a single quarter, and management expenses fell month-on-month. The company's operations continued to improve, thanks to improvements in the repayment level of the LNG trade and logistics business. The net cash flow from operating activities changed from negative to positive compared to the same period last year, increasing 13 times month-on-month; 17Q1 management expenses were 23.52 million, rising and falling year-on-month with revenue growth (YOY +56.14%, QoQ -28.98%). “Coal-to-gas” supports natural gas demand performance. Under environmental pressure, the incentives for the “coal-to-gas” policy will not change in the short term, and market demand for natural gas will maintain a steady growth trend. According to the “China Natural Gas Market Annual Report (2016-2017)” issued by An Xunsi, China's natural gas market is expected to achieve rapid double-digit growth in 2016, mainly due to the advancement of China's market-based reforms, the continuous increase in infrastructure, the increase in gas price competitiveness, and the introduction of industry support policies. According to Zhuochuang News's “2016 China LNG Market Annual Report”, LNG consumption in major LNG consuming provinces such as Hebei, Shandong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu will continue to grow from 2017 to 2021. Profit forecasts remain unchanged, maintaining a “buy” rating: The company is a scarce target in LNG and even hazardous chemical logistics. It has gradually formed an LNG application industry chain. By leveraging its advantages in the logistics field, the company will become a leading enterprise in the LNG logistics distribution industry in the future. Maintain the company's 2017-2019 earnings per share forecast of 0.69 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.30 yuan, respectively. After considering fixed increases and dilutions, earnings per share for 17 to 19 years were 0.61 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.15 yuan (corresponding PE was 45X, 31X, and 23X), maintaining the company's “buy” rating. Risk warning: 1) The company's gross margin level declined; 2) the company's LNG transportation and distribution volume fell short of expectations; 3) crude oil prices fell sharply.

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