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洪涛股份(002325)点评:第三期限制性股票完成授予 发展开启新篇章

申萬宏源研究 ·  May 10, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: Event: The third phase of the company's restricted stock grant was completed. The number of shares granted in this incentive plan was 42.652 million shares, accounting for 3.55% of the total share capital of the listed company before the grant. The total number of people granted restricted shares is 261. The unlocking conditions are based on the company's operating income in 2016. The revenue growth rates in 2017-2019 are not less than 12%, 24%, and 36%, respectively. The effects of the integration of vocational education are showing. After completing the cross-examination education, the students are poised to go. In 2016, the company's vocational education revenue scale increased 132.7% year on year, and gross margin level increased 3.44 percentage points year on year to 70.59%; among subsidiary companies, cross-examination education achieved net profit of 46.27 million yuan in 16 years (promised net profit of 46 million yuan), and breakthroughs were made in live streaming business models such as the company's economic and financial live broadcast and accounting master's live broadcast. The 3.0 version of the KTS teaching management system was launched, and branch product standardization and operation levels were further improved; Scholson achieved net profit of 45.58 million yuan in 2016 (promised net profit of 40 million yuan) ), mainly due to the postponement or suspension of revenue from some certification examinations. In addition, the company has carried out a series of organizational structure optimizations, and costs and expenses have increased. In 2017, with the resumption of a number of practice certification examinations for registered security agents and certified supervisors, the superimposed company's online school learning platforms and live streaming learning platforms have significantly reduced costs and increased efficiency. The popularity of newly developed quality product courses has increased, which will facilitate performance recovery. The vocational education industry continues to expand and improve the vocational education landscape. At the end of 2015, the company established Qianhai Hongtao Education as an important platform for the development of vocational education. In 2016, it mainly promoted the following areas of work to expand and improve the vocational education landscape: 1) recruit external talents with rich experience in the education industry; 2) formulate long-term vocational education development plans; 3) guide the development of existing subsidiary businesses and clarify the strategic position of cross-examination education as a leader in the field of postgraduate studies; the country postponed the window period for some vocational certification examinations and actively promoted the long-term layout of Xuelsen; 4) Reserve high-quality projects to accelerate capital support for vocational education business pace. After deciding on the second main business for vocational education, after more than two years of layout, the company has now launched a large scale in terms of staffing, site planning, and financial support. With the emergence of synergies, it is expected that 17 years will gradually enter a harvest period. The decoration business has developed steadily, new orders have been signed, and quality has improved. At the end of 2016, the company had 2,966 billion yuan of unfinished orders, and the number of new 2017Q1 contracts reached 1,101 billion yuan. While the number of orders increased markedly, the quality of orders also improved, the share of cultural and comprehensive projects increased, and the company's leading position in the high-end market segment was further stabilized. Currently, the company has more than 3.3 billion orders, with an order revenue ratio of 1.15, supporting future performance. The company completed the third restricted stock grant, and employees were fully motivated. It began entering a new stage of development in '17. As the real estate industry stabilizes and industry concentration increases, and the company's major customer strategy takes effect, the scale of the main decoration business is expected to accelerate. In terms of vocational education, the company's expansion has already achieved initial results. In the future, the development of vocational education will be accelerated from both internal and external aspects, which is worth looking forward to. Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “increased holdings” rating: considering that the company's education business is still in the integrated cultivation period, the cost investment is high, and the profit forecast is lowered, the company's net profit for 17-19 is expected to be 235 million/323 million/433 million (originally estimated at 540 million/675 million in 17-18), with a growth rate of 80%/37%/34%, respectively; corresponding PE is 33X/24X/18X, maintaining an increase in holdings rating

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