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腾达建设(600512)点评:业绩爆增65倍 氢能源布局大幕拉开

國金證券 ·  Apr 28, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Performance review The company's first quarter revenue was 667 million yuan, -3.46% year over year, and net profit to mother was 35.45 million, +6509% year over year. The sharp increase in performance was in line with expectations. The sharp reduction in expense ratio/sales tax during the business analysis period contributed to an explosion in performance: 1) The sharp increase in performance was mainly due to a sharp decrease in sales tax: the company's sales tax in the first quarter was 3.09 million (-95.6%), due to the change in circulation tax from within the price to extra-price tax after the “business reform increase”; 2) In terms of a single quarter, the performance explosion accelerated significantly: net profit for the four quarters of 2016 was 54/4384/1576/24.34 million, compared to -82%/+350%/+206%/+152%. In 2017, Q1 net profit exploded by +45.6% month-on-month; 3) Accelerated project implementation led to an increase in accounts receivables/reduction in monetary funds/increase in advance payments: the company's gross margin of 430 million (+54%), monetary capital of 1.38 billion yuan, compared to -34.8% at the beginning of the period, advance payments increased, and expenses for the purchase of raw materials, foreign investment and loan repayment; 4) The gross margin decreased significantly: the company's gross profit margin was 11.63% slightly lower than the same period last year, while the fee rate for the 4.5% period was 12.18% A significant increase of 2% compared to 6.75% in the same period last year Decline. Orders/performance continue to increase, PE/PB valuations are low, and there is a safety margin: 1) The company signed a new order of 4.3 billion yuan (+62%) in 2016, and signed a PPP framework agreement with the Taizhou Luqiao District People's Government on April 15, which is extremely sufficient; 2) Given that PPP/municipal market space is still large, we predict that the company's orders will continue to grow at an accelerated pace, reaching 73/13.2 billion in 17/18. According to the completion percentage method, the revenue of 17/18 reached 63/10.2 billion yuan, and the net profit reached 31/610 million. Compared to +274%/+93%; 3) The current market capitalization of 8.67 billion corresponds to the 17/18 PE valuation, and PEG is only 0.1 times. The company currently has total assets of 7.3 billion yuan, net assets of 4.7 billion, and a balance ratio of only 35.6%. PB is only 1.76 times the lowest among companies of the same size in the construction sector. Lay out hydrogen energy to create a foundation for another 50 years: 1) The company entered the hydrogen energy industry, set up a hydrogen energy fund to raise 10 billion dollars in the first round, and is expected to invest upstream and downstream of the hydrogen industry chain; 2) Compared with developed countries, China's hydrogen energy accounts for a small share of the overall energy structure and has a large development space: Europe, America, and Japan have already developed applications of hydrogen energy in different industries, and the market size is expected to reach 10 trillion yuan by 2050; 3) Strong government support, policy dividends continue: In 2014, the country announced a reward of 4 million yuan for automobile hydrogen fueling stations. In 2016, the NDRC focused on deploying hydrogen energy as an innovation technology. The investment proposal gives the company a target price of 7-8 yuan for the next 6-12 months, corresponding to 35-40 times the 17-year PE valuation. Risk warning PPP is falling short of expectations, and the hydrogen energy industry is developing slowly.

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