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银龙股份(603969)季报点评:业绩反弹超预期 基建、轨交需求持续拉动

民生證券 ·  Apr 28, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Report Summary: Event Overview The company released its report for the first quarter of 2017. The company achieved operating income of 397 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 123.44% over the previous year, and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 31,2078 million yuan, an increase of 448.48% over the previous year. The company's performance recovery continues to exceed expectations. Optimistic about the company's high annual growth, the company's performance rebound began in the second half of 2016, and the company's prestressed steel products business recovered strongly. The company achieved sales revenue of 458 million yuan and 493 million yuan respectively in the third and fourth quarters of 2016, with year-on-year increases of 27.11% and 84.28%, respectively, and net profit of 53.454 million yuan and 45.5542 million yuan respectively, up 85.48% and 45.68% year-on-year respectively. The first and fourth quarters were originally a low season for sales of prestressed steel products. The company's sales revenue in the fourth quarter of 2016 hit the highest level since nine quarters, and its performance in the first quarter of 2017 also reached the best level since listing. We believe that infrastructure investment and industry capacity removal since the second half of last year have boosted the company's performance by far exceeding market expectations. Currently, there are about 240 domestic manufacturers of prestressed steel products, but most of them have small production capacity, there is a big gap in production technology compared to companies, and the market pattern is scattered. As an industry leader, the company will continue to benefit from industry capacity removal in the future, and industry concentration is expected to increase further. Continuing to be optimistic about the development of the high-speed rail track board business, the company with a broad subway track board market is the main developer of the CRTS III pioneering ballastless track board and cellar pool production line. Currently, it has 4 high-speed rail track board production bases. According to our estimates, the average annual market space for China's high-speed rail track boards is conservatively estimated to exceed 3.2 billion yuan. The company recently developed a two-way pre-stressed concrete composite damping track board for the subway. The first test section will soon be laid on Tianjin Metro Line 5, Line 6 and Urumqi Metro Line 1, marking the extension of the Yinlong rail board to the field of subway transportation. The annual market space for ballastless subway track boards is conservatively estimated at more than 1.5 billion yuan. It is expected to benefit from the Belt and Road and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration strategy. The production base will gradually land. The company established Yinlong, Xinjiang in 2015. Currently, the first phase of the project has been basically completed, and it is currently the only production base for prestressed steel products in Xinjiang. It is expected to continue to benefit from being driven by infrastructure demand in Xinjiang, and it is also expected to radiate the Belt and Road. The company's fund-raising project was put into operation this year. The Hebei Hejian branch and Hejian Baozelong production base are expected to benefit from infrastructure demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province. Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 to be 0.49 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 0.71 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE 45 times, 38 times, and 31 times, respectively, maintaining the “highly recommended” rating. Risk warning: infrastructure investment falls short of expectations, railway construction progress falls short of expectations, and raw material prices fluctuate sharply.

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