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大连圣亚(600593)季报点评:一季度淡季业绩减亏 千岛湖项目开工建设

國金證券 ·  May 2, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Performance Overview The company achieved operating income of 444615 million yuan in the first quarter of 2017, an increase of 8.09%; realized net profit attributable to the parent company was -9.5071 million yuan, a loss of 134,000 yuan over the same period last year. Performance review The revenue of the Dalian region grew steadily, and the performance loss narrowed further: the operating income of the Dalian region was 258.799 million yuan, an increase of 26.2%% over the previous year, and the net profit was -6.906 million yuan, a decrease of 1.8 million yuan from the same period last year. The company's operating income and net profit are affected by regional seasonal factors. The company's operating income mainly comes from the Dalian region. Dalian is a coastal city and is a summer resort. The third quarter of every year is the company's peak tourist season. Revenue from the first quarter accounted for a small percentage of the whole year. The company's costs are mainly expenses such as labor, depreciation and amortization expenses, utilities, maintenance costs, rent, bait, and breeding expenses. The costs are relatively rigid, and the seasonal cycle is small. Therefore, the company's loss in the first quarter was a normal performance. Construction of Qiandao Lake Moby Whale World Waterfront City commences: Qiandao Lake Moby Whale World Waterfront City is a tourism project centered on experiential lake and sea cultural landscape jointly created by Dalian Shengya and Dalian Yihe Real Estate Group. The total investment of the project is about 900 million yuan, covering an area of about 60,000 square meters. It is expected to be completed in 2019. It is expected to be completed in 2019. Using Qiandao Lake's location advantages to create a cultural tourism complex project integrating various forms of tourism, tourism supporting housing, and tourism business, achieving a national strategic layout. The company expects to achieve revenue of 239 million yuan after delivery, with a net profit rate of 13.16% for tourism projects and a net profit margin of 51.72% for supporting projects. The investment requirements for new projects are high, and the non-public offering solution is 760 million yuan: the company has a continuous layout of new projects other than Dalian and Harbin. Among them, the investment amount for the first phase of the Yingkou project is 780 million yuan, the Hangzhou Wildlife Park Phase II Longhui Ocean Kingdom is 1 billion yuan, the investment amount of the Xiamen project is 382 million yuan, the investment amount of the Qiandao Lake project is 880 million yuan, and the investment amount of the Sanya project is 295 million yuan. The total investment of these five projects is 3.3 billion yuan. A fixed increase of 760 million yuan is invested entirely in the Zhenjiang project. If the capital pressure of 3.3 billion yuan is solved through bank loans or fund bonds, the financial cost pressure is relatively high. At the same time, the payback period for the company's asset-heavy projects is long. According to the analysis of the feasibility report, the payback period of the project investment is over 7 years, and the project investment is heavy and there are uncertain risks. Profit forecasts and investment recommendations estimate that the net profit for 2017-E-2019E will be 0.57/0.64/0.66 billion yuan, a growth rate of 71%/12%/3%. The high growth rate in 2017 was mainly due to the fixed increase releasing financial pressure through 760 million yuan, and the combined impact of the low performance base in 2016. EPS is 0.47/0.53/0.55 yuan, and PE corresponding to the current stock price is 63/56/54 times, respectively, maintaining an increase in holdings rating. Risk warning that the company's projects under construction are delayed in opening time, proposed cooperative projects are not progressing smoothly, and the operation of the new project falls short of expectations

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