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云投生态(002200)首次覆盖:云南生态园林龙头 定增国改助成长

華泰證券 ·  May 2, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Positioning as a large ecosystem platform, PPP's ability to receive orders has increased dramatically, and performance is expected to increase significantly in 2017. After Cloud Investment Group took over the company in 2010, the company gradually freed itself of its historical burdens through initiatives such as the acquisition of Hongyao Garden. After the change of group leadership in 2016, the company clarified the development strategy for building and operating a large ecosystem of the company. In the last two years, the company has made sufficient technical and project reserves in PPP hot fields such as aquatic ecological management and municipal gardens. In 2015, the company signed a PPP cooperation framework for the “Mountain, City, Lake” regional ecological (tourism) complex in Haitong County, with a total investment of 2.5 billion yuan. Since 2016, the company has signed construction contracts of 4.832 billion yuan, including 2 PPP projects with a total investment of 1,494 billion yuan. The new contract/2016 revenue factor is as high as 4.8. Currently, SPV companies for PPP projects have all been established, and construction is expected to be carried out in 2017. Future PPP revenue recognition will bring greater flexibility to the parent company's performance. Leading ecological garden enterprises in Yunnan Province are expected to further enhance their qualifications and strength through mergers and acquisitions. During the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, the investment in the management plan for the nine major lakes in Yunnan Province is expected to reach 38.596 billion yuan, while the continued rise in the urbanization rate will drive the steady development of municipal gardens, characteristic towns and other industries, and the ecological garden market in the province is very broad. The company is the first enterprise in Yunnan Province to obtain a first-class national landscaping construction qualification. It is also the only listed water management and municipal landscape company in the province. The majority shareholder, Cloud Investment Group, is the largest investment holding group in the province. We believe that the company has a natural advantage in the competition of ecological garden business in the province. In 2016, the company established an industrial fund to focus on mergers and acquisitions in the field of environmental protection and municipal administration. It is expected that in the future, design and construction qualifications will continue to be enhanced through extension, and the ability to receive orders will be further improved. Dingzeng has received deep support from the majority shareholders. It is worth expecting that the Dingzeng Group's national reform plan will raise no more than 7.2 billion yuan in capital, of which 480 million yuan will be used to repay loans entrusted to the group. The rest has now been reviewed by the Development and Review Commission. This time, the majority shareholder, Cloud Investment Group's subscription ratio was increased to close to 90%. Company directors and other executives also participated deeply through employee stock ownership plans, fully demonstrating the Group's confidence in the company's future prospects. The company is positioned as one of the main sources of the Group's performance, and the Group aims to increase revenue by 67% over 2016 to reach 100 billion yuan in 2020. The company has a synergistic effect with various business sectors such as tourism investment under the Group, and is likely to benefit from the Group's national reform in the future. Revenue grew rapidly during the traditional off-season, and there was plenty of room for improvement in financial indicators. Hongyao Garden's performance growth is guaranteed. In 2017 Q1, the company achieved a high revenue growth of 62% during the traditional business off-season. Hongyao Garden achieved a net profit of 107 million yuan in 2016, completed the promised performance of 110%, and an average performance growth rate of over 30% in 13-16. After this fixed increase is completed, the company's debt ratio is expected to fall below 55%, which can save 26 million yuan in interest expenses, which will have a significant positive impact on the company's profit. Currently, the company's operating indicators are improving. In the future, when continuous improvements in cost rates, capital structure, and operating capacity are combined with steady and rapid growth in Hongyao Garden, it is likely that the company's performance and profitability will experience a period of rapid growth. There is plenty of room for future performance growth, with coverage for the first time. Giving a “buy” rating, we expect the company to have an EPS of 0.70/1.15/1.67 yuan and a CAGR of +110% in 2017-19, so there is considerable room for growth. The current average of comparable companies in 2017 was 0.41 PEG. Based on prudent considerations, the approval granted 0.25-0.27 PEG in '17 (G is the compound growth rate of net profit in 16-18), corresponding to 38-42 times PE in 2017 and corresponding to a reasonable price range of 26.6-29.4 yuan, covering the first time, giving it a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Competition in the PPP market is intensifying; financing costs are rising; and the group's national reform falls short of expectations.

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