The performance inflection point appeared at the beginning, which was basically in line with expectations: the company issued annual and quarterly reports, with 16-year revenue of 285 million yuan, down 30.06% from the same period last year, and net profit of 7 million yuan, down 32.02% from the same period last year. 17Q1's revenue was 58 million yuan, up 15.40% from the same period last year, and its net profit was-3 million yuan, reducing losses by 60.78% over the same period last year.
The downturn in oil prices has dragged down the overall performance, and the increase in shale oil production has led to outstanding achievements in the development business: due to the impact of the oil price downturn in the first half of 16, oil companies have reduced investment in exploration and development and reduced demand for oil and gas field equipment; although oil prices began to pick up in the second half of 16 years, but it takes a certain time to transmit to the company's business, so the company's oil and gas field equipment business revenue fell by 33.85% and profits decreased by 25.01% in the past 16 years. Revenue of oil and gas field service business decreased by 34.44%, and profit decreased by 36.82%. Due to the first recovery of US shale oil, the company's 16-year oil and gas exploration and development business revenue of 41 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, profit of 66600 yuan, an increase of 100.89% over the same period last year. The company's 17Q1 performance has improved significantly compared with last year, mainly due to the obvious recovery of fracturing business in the oil service industry and an increase in orders for fracturing equipment.
Continue to expand into the field of environmental protection and nuclear power: the company completed its investment in CNNC Jiahua during the reporting period and became its second largest shareholder. CNNC Jiahua has a number of high-barrier professional qualifications, the company with the help of investment layout of nuclear power equipment. At the same time, in August, 16, the company completed a non-public offering of shares at a price of 11.80 yuan per share and raised 708 million yuan for the construction of oil and gas field environmental protection equipment production and research base. Through years of continuous investment and mergers and acquisitions, the company has formed three major revenue businesses of equipment, services, exploration and development, which run through the entire oil service industry chain; the layout of environmental protection and nuclear power equipment, it is expected to form a new performance growth point with the help of the increasing requirements of oil field environmental protection and the favorable conditions for the recovery and development of nuclear power in our country.
Fracturing equipment business picks up, US shale oil production catalytic performance: us shale oil production is increasing rapidly. Judging from the weekly data of EIA in the past six months, the increase rate of shale oil is close to 800000 b / d, hedging the 1.2 million b / d of the OPEC production reduction agreement. If OPEC decides to extend the production reduction agreement in May, the short-term rise in oil prices may continue the momentum of increasing shale oil production, at the same time The Trump administration has formulated a framework corporate tax cut plan, which will reduce the tax rate from 35% to 15%. If the provisions of this tax reform finally fall, it will provide strong support for the profitability of shale oil companies. The company has a total of oil and gas areas in the Niobrara block and the Permian basin in the United States, and the exploration and development business is expected to become an important source of revenue for the company in 2017.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's net profit from 2017 to 2019 to be 62 million yuan, 86 million yuan and 109 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS 0.16,0.22,0.28 yuan respectively; to maintain the buy-An investment rating, the 6-month target price is 11.68yuan, which is equivalent to the 17-year 73X dynamic P / E ratio.
Risk hint: oil service industry warms up, shale oil production falls short of expectations, and new business expansion falls short of expectations.
