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友邦吊顶(002718)季报点评:收入增长与品牌渠道投入匹配 与恒大合作涉及股权、执行确定性高

海通證券 ·  Apr 27, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: Events: Recently, the company released its quarterly report for 2017. In the first quarter, revenue was about 89.07 million yuan, up 34.3% year on year; net profit was about 17.3 million yuan, up 48.7% year on year; EPS was about 0.20 yuan; net profit after deduction of about 12.85 million yuan, up 8.7% year on year. The company expects net profit from January to June to increase by 0% to 50% year on year to about 5825 to 87.37 million yuan. Comment: Benefiting from the recovery in real estate sales and increased investment in new products and brand channels, the company's revenue growth rate was good in the first quarter. Demand for decoration building materials has performed well since the beginning of the year. The company's own investment in product promotion, brand promotion, and marketing activities has increased. Currently, looking at the promotion of popular series and online and offline promotions, the results of online and offline promotions have been good. Revenue in the first quarter of 2017 increased by about 34.3% year-on-year, continuing the growth trend in the fourth quarter of last year. There was a steady increase in gross margin in the first quarter, brand channel investment increased, and the cost ratio rose significantly. In the first quarter of 2017, the company's comprehensive gross margin was about 45.6%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point over the previous year. Integrated ceilings are a typical category of home improvement retail building materials. Continued revenue growth needs to be matched by brand channel investment. In the first quarter of 2017, the company continued the expansion momentum of the fourth quarter of last year in terms of brand promotion, advertising, marketing, and channel investment. In the first quarter, the company's period expense ratio was about 29.4%, up about 5.7 percentage points year on year; among them, the sales expense ratio increased by about 5.9 percentage points year on year to 16.8%, and the management expense ratio increased by about 1.4 percentage points year on year to about 16.6% year on year. In the first quarter, the company's purchase of wealth management products achieved a net increase of 4.49 million yuan in investment income, which was a major driving force for net profit growth. The project channel signed a major order with Evergrande. The cooperation involves equity, and subsequent execution is highly certain. The company is actively promoting the layout of the engineering business and signed a procurement framework agreement with Evergrande in the early stages. It is expected to supply a total of 500 million yuan to Evergrande in 2017-2019. The company invested 300 million yuan in the first quarter to join Rui Can Investment Company in Suzhou Industrial Park to participate in the targeted capital increase of Evergrande Real Estate. During the same period, Evergrande prepaid the company 150 million yuan in advance receipts. The cooperation with Evergrande involved equity, and subsequent execution is highly certain. Some employee shareholding has been completed, dealer shareholding plans have been explored, and improvements in incentive efficiency can be expected. The company has completed the first employee stock ownership plan in the early stages (employee stock price 73.5 yuan/share); it has recently announced plans to plan a dealer shareholding plan, and it is estimated that the cumulative number of shares held will not exceed 5% of the total share capital. Maintain the “Overweight” rating. Integrated ceilings are consumer building materials with excellent growth and cash flow. The increase in the penetration rate of kitchen and bathroom spaces and the expansion of guest bedroom space applications will drive the continuous expansion of the industry. The company's product design, brand and channel promotion are at the forefront of the industry, and continued leadership can be expected; at the same time, the company is actively promoting expansion into the hardcover housing and tooling market, which is already tied to Evergrande, and the rapid expansion of subsequent volumes is worth looking forward to. The company completed additional issuance in the early stages (issue price 66.2 yuan/share), and its capital strength was further expanded. It has abundant capital on hand and no interest-bearing liabilities. It is estimated that the company's 2017-2019 EPS will be about 1.93, 2.66, and 3.69 yuan, which is 40 times that of PE in 2017, with a target price of 77.20 yuan. Risk warning: The volume of new products released fell short of expectations, and the decline in gross margin exceeded expectations.

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