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银邦股份(300337)年报及季报点评:拐点已至 大订单在手业绩无忧

平安證券 ·  Apr 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment matters: Yinbang Co., Ltd. released its 2016 annual report and 2017 quarterly report. The company announced its 2016 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of about 1.57 billion yuan, an increase of 15.01% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 7.31 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit, an increase of 103.91% over the previous year. At the same time, the report for the first quarter of 2017 was announced. In the first quarter of 2017, the company achieved operating income and net profit of RMB 430 million and RMB 2.05 million respectively, up 19.83% and 376.14% over the previous year. Ping An's view: Multiple factors contributed to the inflection point in the company's performance: the company successfully reversed losses in 2016 and the first quarter of 2017, of which net profit of RMB 2.05 million was realized in the first quarter of 2017. We maintain the judgment that the inflection point in the company's performance has been reached: (1) Aluminum prices have gradually rebounded, and preparations for falling inventory prices have been reduced: From 2012 to 2015, domestic aluminum prices fell all the way, and the company continued to make preparations for falling inventory prices. Since the beginning of 2016, domestic aluminum prices have gradually rebounded, and preparations for falling inventory prices will no longer be the main factors affecting performance; (2) Fund-raising projects have released production capacity, and gross margin levels have rebounded significantly: the company's IPO fund-raising projects have released production capacity, equipment capacity has been greatly increased, and by increasing domestic and foreign market development efforts to absorb new production capacity, the company achieved product sales of 108,300 tons in 2016, an increase of 21.47% over the previous year, driving revenue growth of 15.01%. At the same time, the product yield increased, and the gross margins of the aluminum-based series, aluminum-based steel composite series, and polymetallic series increased by 9.23%, 4.37%, and 14.49%, respectively. The five-year order of 2 billion dollars effectively consolidated the company's performance: In January 2017, the company signed a major contract with Valeo Thermalsystems (Valeo). The company will provide it with 377 million yuan to 425 million yuan of aluminum alloy composites and non-composite aluminum alloys every year according to Valeo's actual business plan. The implementation period is 5 years, with a cumulative amount of nearly 2 billion yuan. The order's annual purchasing volume accounted for about 25% of the company's revenue in 2016, paving the way for performance growth in the next few years. The 3D printing project is progressing steadily: in 2012, the company participated in the establishment of Feierkang Rapid Manufacturing Technology Co., Ltd. to enter the field of 3D printing. Feiercon is mainly engaged in 3D printing of metal parts, and has important applications in aviation, medical and other fields. The level of China's aviation manufacturing industry continues to rise, and the first flight of the large domestic aircraft C919 is imminent. In the future, the domestic aviation manufacturing industry will drive the rise of the parts industry. As the only 3D printing company in China that has obtained COMAC supplier certification, Fiercon can currently supply more than 100 3D printed parts for COMAC every year. With the increase in the scale of the domestic aviation manufacturing industry, Feilcon's prospects are clear. In 2016, Fiercon achieved revenue of 17.99 million yuan and net profit of 2.32 million yuan, and the company's 3D printing business developed steadily. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of military orders: entering the military industry is one of the company's important strategic layouts in recent years. In 2014 and 2015, the company signed “Strategic Cooperation Agreements” with the China Institute of Weapons Science and Engineering and the 702nd Research Institute of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation respectively to conduct cooperative research and development of military products. On March 30, 2016, the Chinese Academy of Ordnance Sciences hosted a bidding evaluation meeting for a certain type of aluminum alloy sheet project in Beijing to confirm that the company won the bid. The gross profit of military products is high. If a breakthrough is achieved in orders now and next year, it will significantly enhance the company's profitability. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the company's military orders. Investment advice: Unfavorable factors such as capacity adjustment and falling aluminum prices have gradually dissipated; the company's product sales growth is in line with expectations, and we maintain our judgment that the inflection point in the company's performance has reached an inflection point. The military industry and 3D printing industry involved in the company all have a lot of room for development, and it is expected that the company's profitability will increase significantly in the future. We expect that the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 will be 0.16 yuan, 0.26 yuan, and 0.34 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding P/E values will be 47 times, 30 times, and 23 times, respectively, to maintain the “recommended” rating. The previous forecast for 2017-2018 EPS was 0.19 yuan and 0.36 yuan respectively. This adjustment is mainly due to adjustments to the 2017 and 2018 revenue forecasts for 2017 and 2018 after referring to the company's 2017 business plan. Risk warning: (1) The price of aluminum raw materials has fallen sharply; (2) the macroeconomic downturn has reduced downstream demand.

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