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安通控股(600179)点评:规模效应提升毛利率 业绩加速增长

國金證券 ·  Apr 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The performance review company achieved operating income of 1,162 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2017, an increase of 62.35% over the previous year; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 121 million yuan, an increase of 125.39% over the previous year, combined with basic earnings per share of 0.11 yuan, an increase of 10.0% over the previous year. Business analysis The scale of operations expanded, and the performance growth rate reached a new level: In the first quarter of 2017, the domestic trade container transport industry improved, and the company model adapted to the development of the industry, causing the company's business scale to expand and business volume to increase. Combined with the low base effect, the company's performance continued to accelerate (net profit growth rate for the full year of 2016 was 51.3%). After the company's restructuring was completed, it benefited from the frequent introduction of regional strategic plans, frequent interregional commodity exchanges, and broad development space in the domestic trade container transport market. Furthermore, the company adheres to the combination of “industrial management” and “capital operation”, actively integrates high-quality supplier resources, and optimizes financing channels and forms of financing. The expansion of the company's operating scale also effectively achieved a scale effect. Operating costs in the first quarter rose 59.46% year on year, less than the increase in revenue. Gross margin reached 23.76%, an increase of 1.38 pts. Announcing the shareholders' dividend return plan, profit determination can be expected: At the same time as announcing the quarterly report, the company announced the shareholder dividend return plan for the next three years. From 2017 to 2019, a cash dividend will be paid once a year, not less than 10% of the distributable profit achieved in that year. Although the dividend ratio is not high, the dividend plan has gone from scratch, reflecting the company's good expectations for the level of performance and the importance that management attaches to shareholders' interests. We believe that when the company's performance this year and next two years exceeds the restructuring, its promises are certain. The development of multimodal transport is worth looking forward to: multimodal transport with containers as transport units can improve transportation efficiency, achieve door-to-door transportation without changing containers, effectively reduce transportation costs, improve transportation quality, and promote the growth potential of the container logistics industry. In order to obtain value from the entire logistics industry chain, the company expects to absorb railway assets and further lay out the logistics network through additional distribution and other means, go deeper into mainland China, and rely on a comprehensive logistics informatization platform through “sea-rail-land” multimodal transport to provide customers with smart logistics solutions. The investment advice company focuses on domestic trade container logistics services, which benefit from the “Belt and Road” domestic trade containers. It is expected that the volume and price of domestic trade container transportation will rise sharply in 2017. The company is expected to acquire value in the entire logistics industry chain and enhance the company's profitability by absorbing railway assets to form a comprehensive “sea railway” multimodal transport model. The company's 2017-2019 EPS is expected to be 0.54 yuan, 0.69 yuan, and 0.83 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 31 times, 25 times, and 20 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risks suggest a decline in domestic trade demand, and the development of multimodal transport falls short of expectations.

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