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东兴证券(601198)年报点评:股东协同强化 资本实力扩充

華泰證券 ·  Apr 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The margin of change in performance was significantly superior to that of the industry, and the synergy effect with shareholder China Oriental was significant: net profit of 1,353 billion yuan in 2016, -34% over the same period. The change in performance was significantly better than the industry average; achieved operating income of 3,573 billion yuan, or -33% year-on-year; EPS was 0.53 yuan, net assets per share of 6.79 yuan, and a weighted average ROE of 9.15%. 1.5 yuan will be distributed for every 10 shares. Dongfang Asset, the controlling shareholder of the company, has strong capital. It completed the acquisition of the Bank of Dalian in the first half of the year and completed the full financial license layout. Relying on the strong comprehensive financial layout and resource advantages of China Oriental, the majority shareholder, the company shares business and customer resources, and has remarkable collaborative advantages. In 2016, the cumulative scale of collaborative business carried out by the company and the group exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the total revenue of the collaborative business is estimated to be +244% year-on-year. Online and offline brokerage are making concerted efforts, and capital intermediaries strictly control risk brokerage businesses and accelerate the transformation to wealth management and investment and financing intermediaries. An offline business system with branches as the core has been established, an Internet finance department has been set up online, and a series of special services such as robotic investment have been launched. The stock base trading volume in 2016 was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a market share of 1.025%, an increase of 6 bps over 2015. Achieved net brokerage revenue of 1,063 billion yuan, -56% year-on-year. Capital intermediaries strictly control proper management. The balance of the two loans at the end of 2016 was 9.535 billion yuan, ranking 22nd in the industry; market share was 1.02%. The amount to be repurchased in the stock pledge business at the end of the year was 5.88 billion yuan, +223% over the same period last year. At the end of 2016, the overall guarantee ratio of loans and stock pledges remained at 306% and 223%, with a high margin of safety. Achieved net interest income of -388 million yuan, -21% year-on-year. Investment banks strengthen business collaboration with shareholders and build a “investment+financing+investment bank” integrated service chain investment banking business to increase business expansion and brand promotion efforts. In the future, they will further shape the business brand image by undertaking large-scale projects and unique quality projects. At the same time, it will strengthen business collaboration with Eastern China and build a comprehensive service chain of “investment+financing+investment banking”. There were 15 shareholder underwriting projects throughout the year, including 1 IPO; the lead underwriting amount was 14.95 billion yuan, +291% over the same period last year. The principal underwriting amount of the bond was 60.7 billion yuan, +56% year over year. Completed the issuance of 10 ABS products and 346 financial advisory projects. The investment banking business achieved net revenue of 831 million, an increase of 19% over the previous year. As of the end of 2016, the company was reviewing 5 IPO projects and 12 refinancing projects. 77 new listings were added to the new third board, with a total of 162 listings, ranking 21st. Asset management actively innovates and improves the product line. The self-operated asset management business adheres to the “stability+value” concept and uses active management as the development idea. Using the advantages of Dongfang Jinke's entire financial industry chain, it continuously enriches the variety to form a full asset management product chain covering equity, fixed income, quantification, derivatives, FOF, outsourcing, cross-border, ABS, etc. At the end of the year, AUM was 10.6 billion yuan, of which the total volume was 28.4 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, which was 30%. Net revenue from asset management business was 316 million for the whole year, -36% year-on-year. Self-management adheres to the concept of “stability+value” and strictly controls investment risks. Equity investments broadened revenue channels and added innovative business models such as monetary fund market-making, with year-end positions of 4 billion yuan, -5% year over year; fixed income reduced leverage and long-term period, with year-end positions of 6.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of +110% year over year, achieving net investment income of 1,704 billion yuan, or -15% year over year. The expansion of capital strength has greatly opened up business space and maintained the purchase rating. In 2016, the company successfully completed a non-public offering project of 4.8 billion yuan, further strengthening its capital strength. Once the capital is in place, it will expand capital strength, reduce capital costs, open up various business spaces, and expand the scale of business. The profit forecast and target price are adjusted according to the 2016 performance situation. It is estimated that EPS for 2017-19 will be 0.67 yuan, 0.8 yuan, and 0.85 yuan, corresponding to PE of 25 times, 21 times, and 20 times, maintaining the purchase rating. Risk warning: Business development is not as good as expected, and there is a risk of market fluctuations.

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