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东兴证券(601198)业绩快报点评:业绩优于行业平均水平 “资管+投行”高贡献度高增长

太平洋證券 ·  Apr 23, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Event: On April 20, the company announced the 2016 performance report. In 2016, it achieved operating income of 3.57 billion yuan, -33% year-on-year; net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, -34% of the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.53 yuan/share, -38% year-on-year. Comment: The performance in 2016 was better than the industry average, and the investment income was 1.8 billion dollars, only 95 million less than in 2015. The revenue of the securities industry fell 43% year on year; the industry's net profit fell 50% year on year. Dongxing Securities's year-on-year revenue ratio (-33%) and net profit ratio (-34%) were both strictly better than the industry average. Investment income accounted for nearly 50% of revenue, and investment income decreased by only 5% year over year. Brokerage business operating profit declined 69% year over year. The brokerage business achieved revenue of 1,222 billion yuan, -55% year-on-year, and operating profit of 521 million yuan, -69% year-on-year. The company's agent stock trading base trading volume was 2.90 trillion yuan, down 45% from the 5.32 trillion yuan in 2015, and the decline was lower than the industry average (including 2.75 trillion yuan in stock trading, with a market share of 1.08%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points over 2015). Revenue from consignment sales of financial products was $29 million, down 28% from $40 million in 2015. The operating profit of the self-operated business was 277 million yuan, down 75% from the previous year. The scale of self-operated business was 18.2 billion (4 billion equity plus 142 billion fixed income). At the end of 2015, the self-operated scale was 15.8 billion, an increase of 2.4 billion, of which the fixed income category increased by 2.7 billion. The average yield of self-operated business was 8.10%, a significant decrease from 22.58% in 2015. The investment banking business was mainly driven by fixed growth and fixed income business, and operating profit increased by 21%. The company's investment banking business achieved operating profit of 378 million yuan, a contribution of 23%, and a year-on-year growth rate of 21%. Underwriting revenue totaled 576 million yuan, an increase of 47% over the previous year. Among them, the additional issuance business achieved underwriting revenue of 190 million yuan, an increase of 161% over the previous year; bond issuance achieved underwriting revenue of 367 million yuan, 17% over the same period last year, and the IPO achieved underwriting revenue of 18.95 million yuan (200,000 yuan in 2015). By the end of 2016, the company was reviewing 5 IPO sponsorship projects and 12 refinancing sponsorship projects under review. The asset management business increased its operating profit by 100% and contributed 27%, making it the second largest source of operating profit. The scale of asset management rose from 60 billion in 2015 to 100 billion, and the business structure improved markedly. Investment advice: The company's investment banking and asset management businesses have contributed 50% to operating profit and maintained rapid growth. Performance is expected to improve, and a rating of increase in holdings will be given. Target price for six months: 19 yuan/share. Risk warning: stricter regulation, policy risk; risk of performance being affected by stock market fluctuations.

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