Main points of investment
Event: the company released its annual report on April 18, with revenue of 1.749 billion yuan, an increase of 28.84% over the same period last year, and net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies was 156 million yuan, an increase of 28.27% over the same period last year. Huayu Garden, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has completed the performance commitment of 2014-2016 and actually deducted the non-return net profit of 109 million yuan, 132 million yuan and 169 million yuan respectively.
Double main business drives growth, and performance accelerates inflection point recognition. The company achieved an operating income of 1.749 billion yuan in 2016, an increase of 28.84% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 156 million yuan, an increase of 28.27% over the same period last year. Quarter-by-quarter, the company's 16-year Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 single-quarter revenue was 3.61 / 3.95 Universe, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42.83%, 50.93% and 25.12%. The net profit of returning home in a single quarter was 0.23, 0.33, 0.35, 0.64 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58.54% /-7.70%, 87.56%, 23.42%. From a business point of view, the combined anti-counterfeit cap business achieved business income of 306 million yuan, down 1.86% from the same period last year, mainly due to the recovery of the liquor industry, which was significantly narrower than that in 15 years; the gross profit margin was 12.76%, an increase of 4.53% over the same period last year, mainly benefiting from the upgrading of the product structure of anti-counterfeit bottle caps. The business income of landscaping business reached 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 49.33% over the same period last year, mainly due to the company's active promotion of landscape environmental protection PPP business during the reporting period: the gross profit margin was 20.77%, down 5.50% from the same period last year. Mainly because the company focused on recognizing the income of infrastructure construction projects with low gross profit margin during the reporting period, it is expected that the income penetration rate of high gross margin ecological restoration projects of the company will increase significantly in 17 years.
Garden orders have increased significantly, plus high gross profit ecological restoration projects. Over the past 16 years, the company announced that the 6.38 billion project (pre) won the bid and the framework agreement, which is 5.5 times of the company's garden income in 2016, which has become a solid guarantee for performance growth. In the past 16 years, the company has implemented three large-scale PPP projects, including the PPP project of urban infrastructure and ecological restoration of Jinqiao Lake in Bazhou District, the comprehensive ecological restoration project of Xixiu District of Anshun City, and the Shimiaozi Reservoir Project of Hechuan District of Chongqing, with a total revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, an increase of 49.33% over the same period last year. At the same time, the subsidiary Huayu Garden PPP business development was strongly supported by the company. At the end of the 16th year, the company raised 781 million more funds, of which 620 million was injected into the garden PPP project. Sufficient funds will speed up the implementation of the project, and the 17-year performance will be greatly confirmed. At the same time, it is expected that with the help of the listing platform, the company's landscaping business is expected to enter the high growth channel.
The prosperity of the liquor industry has rebounded and the structure of bottle cap business has been upgraded. At present, the company is the largest manufacturer of anti-counterfeiting bottle caps in China, serving more than 700 customers, with an annual output of 2 billion bottle caps. The "QR code intelligent anti-counterfeiting bottle cap" opens a new era of the company's traditional manufacturing + Internet, helping the transformation and upgrading of the traditional manufacturing industry and supply-side reform, while actively opening up the non-liquor market such as wine and pre-blended liquor. enter a broader blue sea of fast consumer products while calming the volatility of the liquor market. 17 years as the downstream liquor industry enters the business cycle and bottle cap products upgrade, the company's bottle cap business is expected to usher in a new round of growth.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment suggestions: we forecast that the net profit of the company's homing in 17-18-19 will be 270 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, EPS0.31/0.46/0.60 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE is respectively times that of 23-16-12. Considering the full recovery of the company's traditional bottle cap business this year and the acceleration of PPP garden performance, we give the target price of 9.2 yuan (corresponding to 17 years PE30 times). Buy rating.
Risk hint: macroeconomic downside risk, accounts receivable recovery risk.