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联发股份(002394)年报&一季报点评:毛利率下降累Q1业绩 看好全球产能布局

國泰君安 ·  Apr 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: The 16-year results are in line with our expectations. The 17Q1 gross margin declined year-on-year due to rising costs of raw materials, coal, etc. The company is a leading textile exporter, benefiting from the recovery of the US economy; the high dividend rate is catalytic in the current market environment. Investment points: The 16-year performance was in line with our expectations and maintained an increase in holdings rating. 2016 revenue/net profit of 3.74 billion (+7.5%) /390 million (+33.8%); 16Q4 revenue/net profit of net income of 1.01 billion (+19.1%) /160 million (+35.5%). 17Q1 revenue/net profit of $890 million (+1.7%) /$0.6 billion (+2.9%). The 16-year results were in line with our expectations, and the decline in gross margin in 17Q1 dragged down the results. It is expected that the continued high cost of raw materials, coal, etc. in '17 will drag down the gross profit margin. The EPS for 17-18 was lowered to 1.27/1.32 yuan (previous value 1.30/1.46), and the EPS is expected to be 1.43 yuan in '19. The market valuation center moved downward. The target price was lowered to 19.8 yuan (previous value of 21.34), corresponding to 15 times PE in '18, and an increase in holdings. Gross margin increased significantly in '16, and revenue and gross margin were under pressure in '17. In 2016, the company's gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points compared to 15 years. The increase was particularly evident in two major products, yarn-dyed fabrics and shirts. Expenses were properly controlled throughout the year, at the same time as in 2015; at the same time, lower coal prices in the first half of 2016 and higher cotton prices in the second half of 2016 also contributed to the growth of the electric steam business and cotton yarn trading business. The gross margin of 17Q1 fell 1.4 percentage points from 16Q1, and the inventory turnover ratio was 1.1 times, a decrease of 0.3 times from 2016, mainly due to the higher price of stored cotton and the rise in coal prices. The global layout and diversified operation of the textile business have become the direction of development. The main battleground for the textile business will shift from China to Southeast Asia, Africa and other places. The company is already actively laying out new projects in Ethiopia, which will be launched in due course. In addition to the textile business, the fields of new energy and environmental protection are still the focus of the company's attention. The distributed photovoltaic power generation under construction is a small test, and sewage treatment is also included in external considerations. The high dividend rate continues. The total dividend for the full year of 2016 was 190 million yuan, accounting for 49% of the net profit of the mother, and the dividend rate was 3.7%, the same as in 2015. Continued high dividends are catalytic in the current market environment. Risk warning: The risk of large fluctuations in cotton prices; the pace of progress in new energy projects falls short of expectations.

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