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友邦吊顶(002718)点评:筹划经销商持股 利益绑定助力渠道拓展

中泰證券 ·  Apr 25, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: The company received letters of intent from some dealers to hold shares, and some dealers plan to sign management agreements with relevant professional management agencies to obtain the company's shares by legal means. The current dealer shareholding plan is still in the planning stage; the total number of shares held by the dealer's shareholding plan does not exceed 5% of the company's total share capital, and the total number of shares corresponding to each dealer's share equity is not more than 1% of the company's total share capital. Plan initial dealer shareholding plans, and benefit bundling to help expand channels. Under the slowdown in performance growth in 2016, the company strengthened the optimization and improvement of the channel and dealer system, and the effects of diversified channel expansion gradually became apparent. The planning and promotion of the dealer's shareholding plan shows the dealer's confidence in the company's management and future development. Previously, Gree Electric, Boss Electric, Wuliangye, etc. have all held dealer shares, and the operating results have been remarkable. We believe that binding the interests of the company and dealers through the shareholding plan can further stimulate dealer potential and help the company expand its channels rapidly while strengthening the operating momentum of dealers. The engineering-side business is expected to gain momentum, driving rapid scale expansion: The company previously signed a 3-year 500 million contract, showing that the company's brand influence and product quality have been recognized, further demonstrating the company's competitive strength as an industry leader. In the future, as Evergrande Real Estate continues to expand rapidly, orders from Evergrande Real Estate are expected to continue to land, driving the revenue scale to continue to expand rapidly. At the same time, the company's brand influence among real estate customers will also be further enhanced. In the future, under national policies to vigorously promote prefabricated buildings and residential refinement, the company will continue to expand its engineering business with first-tier real estate developers as key customers, and quickly seize market share by taking advantage of the trend of increasing concentration of leading real estate companies. Management optimization+channel diversification expansion+production capacity release drives a continuous increase in market share: 1) Sales management system optimization, the number of stores continues to increase and sink into third- and fourth-tier cities, while improving dealer operation capacity; 2) The company targets first-tier real estate developers to continuously expand its public decoration engineering business, and uses the trend of increasing real estate concentration to increase its market share. 3) Online channel applications are more proficient, and the drainage effect is obvious. 4) The new production capacity is expected to be gradually released and put into operation in '17, helping the company rapidly expand its market share and drive rapid growth in performance. Investment advice: The integrated ceiling industry is one of the fastest growing categories in home furnishing. The company is the industry leader and the only listed company. The effects of brand upgrading, management optimization, and channel adjustment over the past few years have gradually become apparent. Future multi-channel expansion and product category expansion will help the company once again embark on a path of rapid development. We expect the company's 2017-2019 EPS to be 1.99, 2.68, and 3.37 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 30, 22, and 17 times, respectively. The company's current stock price is lower than the employee stock holding price (73.54 yuan) and fixed increase price (66.2 yuan), has a high margin of safety, and maintains a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The decline in real estate sales exceeded expectations, and new business development fell short of expectations

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