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东兴证券(601198)年报点评:投行业务爆发增长 协同效应愈加显著

國泰君安 ·  Apr 24, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: The company's performance is significantly better than the industry average, the brokerage business share has risen steadily, the investment banking business has exploded, the revenue structure continues to be optimized, and asset management has built the entire product chain. The stock reform of Oriental Asset, the majority shareholder, has been completed, and business collaboration has entered a new chapter. Investment points: Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating and maintain the target price of 28.05 yuan/share. The company achieved revenue/net profit of 35.73/1,353 billion yuan in 2016, or -33.37%/-33.83% over the same period last year. The performance was in line with expectations. By the end of 2016, the company's net assets were 18.318 billion yuan, up 34.78% from the end of 2015. Considering the impact of the decline in the average daily trading volume of the two markets, the company's 2017-2019 EPS was lowered to 0.71/0.79/0.89 yuan (the EPS for 17/18 before adjustment was 0.82/1.12 yuan), maintaining the target price of 28.05 yuan/share, and increasing holdings. The investment banking business exploded, and the revenue structure continued to be optimized. ① The company's stock market share in 2016 was 1.14%, +0.1% year-on-year, and a comprehensive commission rate of 37,000 (2016Q3, 3.6 million). The company vigorously promoted the “online+offline” development model and accelerated the transformation from traditional channels to wealth management and investment and financing intermediaries. The competitiveness of the brokerage business is expected to further improve. ② 2016 was a year when the company's investment banking business exploded. The share of investment bank revenue increased sharply from 11% in 2015 to 22%, and the number of stock owners in the industry rose by 28 places. As of the latest, the company ranked 25th in the 6 industries in the IPO queue, ranked 15th among the 27 industries in the counseling and filing stage, and ranked 8th in 15 industries with refinancing projects under review. Subsequent companies' investment performance will continue to be released at an accelerated pace. ③ The company's asset management scale increased 50% year-on-year in 2016, of which the scale of pooled asset management increased by 30.07%. Next, the company will continue to build the entire asset management product chain by taking advantage of the majority shareholders' advantages in the entire financial industry chain. In 2016, the company and Oriental Asset, the majority shareholder, carried out various collaborative businesses on a cumulative scale of more than 100 billion dollars. The total revenue of the collaborative business is expected to increase by 243.77% year on year. Dongfang Asset's stock reform has been completed, and the company's next step will continue to focus on the development direction of “big investment banks, big asset management, big sales” and increase business collaboration with major shareholders in the fields of investment banking, asset management, and investment. The development space is very broad. Risk warning: The sharp decline in the stock market has brought about a double decline in performance and valuation; industry regulation has been strengthened.

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