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迪马股份(600565)调研报告:多产业+多业态 迪马下的是一盘大棋

東興證券 ·  Apr 21, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Report summary: The two major sectors have developed collaboratively: real estate provides performance support and is expected to enter the 30 billion tier in 2017; the military industry provides theme promotion, and the civilian version is expected to be launched within the year. The performance of the real estate sector is growing rapidly and is expected to exceed $30 billion in 2017. According to Kerry data, the company had sales of 22.6 billion yuan in 2016, far exceeding market expectations. Based on the company's land acquisition situation last year and equity incentive plan requirements, sales are expected to reach 30 billion dollars in 2017. The military sector is rich and underdeveloped, and Poly cooperation is adding support. The military sector mainly includes military vehicles and exoskeleton robots. It is expected to develop the ability to go hand in hand with the real estate sector after production. At the same time, cooperation with the Poly Department gives the company huge room for imagination in the development of the military sector. Multiple business formats will achieve the deep integration of military industry+real estate. The company's industrial layout determines that the company will have an innate advantage in building industrial parks or characteristic towns in the future. We are optimistic that the company will use the characteristic town model to achieve rapid expansion in the military sector and comprehensive capabilities in the real estate field. Equity incentive programs promote growth. The company implemented an equity incentive plan in September of last year, covering 158 management and core employees. The restricted stocks included in the incentive plan accounted for 3.79% of the company's total share capital at that time. The wide coverage and intensity of the incentive plan is enough to show the company's determination to pay enough to motivate management and core employees. The company can be expected to grow significantly in the past three years. The company is a brand real estate enterprise with a nationwide presence in Chongqing. It is also a leader in the special vehicle industry. It has entered a period of rapid expansion since 2016. In particular, with the rapid development of the company's military sector business and the real estate business entering a large-scale stage, it is expected that the collaborative development of the two major businesses will significantly increase the company's profit and valuation level. We expect the company's revenue from 2017 to 2019 to be 19.4 billion yuan, 23.8 billion yuan and 27.8 billion yuan, respectively; earnings per share will be 0.54 yuan, 0.68 yuan and 0.85 yuan, respectively. Without considering the military sector, the company's NAV is discounted by 20% from the stock price, giving the company a very good performance support. We gave the company a target price of 12 yuan for 6 months, maintaining the company's “Highly Recommended” rating. Risk warning: Real estate regulation policies suppress sales growth, military sector business progress falls short of expectations

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