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利源精制(002501)中小盘信息更新:2016定调转型业绩稳增 2017加速增长轨交成型

國泰君安 ·  Apr 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: Achieving net profit of 550 million in '16, in line with our expectations. The third major transformation was set in '16, with steady, moderate growth. In '17, production capacity was released and performance grew at an accelerated pace. The delivery of prototype vehicles at the end of the year nurtured a new hot spot, with a target price of 17.1 yuan. Key investment points: Maintain an “gain” rating, target price of 17.1 yuan. The company announced that it achieved revenue of 2,558 billion yuan in 2016 (up 11% from the same period) and earned net profit of 550 million yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year, which is basically in line with our expectations. 2016 was the first year of the company's third major transformation. From construction aluminum profiles -> industrial aluminum profiles -> deep processing of aluminum profiles -> rail transit equipment manufacturing step by step, the company's management was not satisfied with the incoming orders from the existing business, and also aggressively integrated the high-speed rail transit industry chain horizontally, pledging to be “the first person in private rail transit in China”. Maintaining the 17/18 net profit forecast of $696/1.03 billion, the corresponding EPS was 0.57/0.85 yuan, and the target price was 17.1 yuan. The third major transformation set the tone in 2016, with steady, moderate growth in performance. Looking back at 2016, the company's 1.73 million square meter new plant in Shenyang took 1 year and 4 months to complete and put into operation. The total increase of 3 billion dollars was put into place in January this year, and the industrial chain upgrade from “deep processing of aluminum profiles -> rail transit equipment manufacturing” was realized. The new Shenyang plant covers 8 deep processing workshops, a 22-seat rail car production workshop, and an 11-seat auxiliary facility workshop. The official commissioning of the project has been highly recognized by provincial and municipal leaders, and corresponding resource connections are being carried out in an orderly manner, and it is expected to become a new engine for Shenyang's economic take-off. In 2017, production capacity release for deep processing accelerated growth, and the delivery of prototype vehicles at the end of the year nurtured a new hot spot. Looking ahead to 2017, the 3 deep processing plants are currently in full production. The remaining 5 will all be put into operation in the first half of the year to meet CITIC Deca's orders for more than 200,000 wheels, 12,000-ton laptop cases, base station radiators, photovoltaic mounts, and mobile phone cases. What is even more worth looking forward to is that the 22-seater rail car workshop will be fully put into operation in the second half of the year. It is expected that a complete prototype will be released by the end of '17, making it a hot new business for the company. In terms of downstream demand, Shenyang's 300-kilometer subway order and Southeast Asia high-speed rail order are relatively certain. The downstream rail transit blue ocean with an annual value of 90 billion dollars is waiting for the company to enjoy. Catalysts: New orders for deep processing of aluminum profiles for consumer electronics; orders for rail transit bodies and complete vehicles. Core risk: Some production lines at the Shenyang base may be put into operation later than expected.

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