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蓝海华腾(300484)年报点评:业绩高增长 电动物流车电控发展弹性大

廣發證券 ·  Apr 16, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Core view: Benefiting from the development of the NEV industry and the increase in the company's shipments, the company achieved high growth in 2016. The company achieved revenue of 678 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.8%, and net profit to mother was 155 million yuan, up 118.9% year on year. On the one hand, the high performance growth benefited from a rapid increase in NEV sales volume and market share last year. On the other hand, it also stemmed from the continuous increase in NEV electronic control shipments and market share in the first quarter of this year. The main reason is that the company achieved revenue of 134 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, up 56.7% year on year, and net profit to mother was 35.57 million yuan, up 34.0% year on year. New energy logistics vehicles are expected to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in 2017. The company's performance flexibility for logistics vehicles is high. In 2016, the company's NEV electronic control revenue was 555 million yuan, an increase of 165.4% over the previous year. Of this, the revenue from special vehicles such as logistics vehicles already accounted for more than half. In 2017, with the introduction of new national supplement regulations and the first three subsidy catalogues, 215 special vehicles have already been selected for promotion. New energy special vehicles are expected to return to normal development this year. We expect production and sales of new energy logistics vehicles to reach more than 90,000 vehicles throughout this year, an increase of more than 50% over the same period last year. The company's first three batches of electronic control catalogs already include a total of 5 special purpose vehicle models from Sinotruk Ace and Chengdu Tongtu. It has subsequently relied on expanding the logistics vehicle market for customers within the Watermar Innovation Alliance and the original old customers outside the alliance, which has great flexibility on the performance of logistics vehicles. Benefiting from improvements in the downstream industry, the company's traditional industrial control products are expected to hit bottom and rise. In addition to electronic control, the company also has industrial control products such as medium- and low-voltage inverters and servo drives. In 2016, revenue was 110 million yuan, an increase of 16.4% over the previous year. The past two years have been affected by the downturn in the manufacturing industry. Compared with electronic control for new energy vehicles, the development of the company's industrial control products has been relatively lackluster. However, with the recent rebound in the domestic midstream manufacturing industry, the company's industrial control boom has also improved. We expect the company's traditional industrial control products such as medium- and low-voltage inverters and servo drives to grow by around 30% this year. Logistics vehicle electronic control unleashed performance elasticity, maintaining that purchasing rating companies are expected to grow with high elasticity in the field of electronic logistics vehicle electronic control, and traditional industrial control products have bottomed out and rebounded. The company's 2017-2019 EPS is expected to be 2.13, 2.85 and 3.48 yuan/share, and the corresponding PE is 33X, 25X, and 20X, maintaining the purchase rating. Risks suggest that NEV production and sales are lower than expected; the company's electronic control shipments are lower than expected; and the company's industrial control is lower than expected.

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