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腾达建设(600512)点评:再签100亿框架协议证实订单潜力

國金證券 ·  Apr 18, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Brief review of the incident On April 15, the company and Gangtai Group signed the “Urban Village Renovation Old City Block Phase I PPP Project (Including Qingming River Map)” with the People's Government of Luqiao District, Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province. The initial estimate of the project is about 10 billion yuan. Management analysis of the 10 billion framework agreement confirms the high level of PPP/municipal prosperity: 1) The project is within the scope of the first phase of the renovation of the old city in Luqiao District of Taizhou City, including relocation and resettlement housing construction, public infrastructure construction, and overall development of the modern Qingming River Map on both sides of the Nanguan River, etc., with a preliminary estimate of about 10 billion yuan; investment, financing, development, construction and management of projects implemented in the PPP model; 2) As of February 28, the PPP comprehensive information platform of the Ministry of Finance has included 11,784 warehousing projects nationwide, with a total investment of 13.9 million yuan. Continued growth, with 4154 municipal engineering projects accounting for 35.3% as the largest sub-project. Orders/performance continue to increase, PE/PB valuation is low, and there is a safety margin: 1) The company signed 4.3 billion new orders in 2016 (+62%). Since PPP/municipal market space is still large, we predict that the company's future orders will continue to accelerate and new orders will reach 73/13.2 billion in 17/18. According to the completion percentage method, 17/18 revenue reached 63/10.2 billion, and net profit reached 31/61 billion, +93% year over year; 2) The current market value of 8.67 billion yuan corresponds to the 17/18 PE valuation of 27/14 Times, PEG is only 0.1. The company currently has total assets of 7.8 billion yuan, net assets of 4.6 billion, and a balance ratio of only 40%. PB is only 1.8 times the lowest among companies of the same size in the construction sector. Lay out hydrogen energy to create another 50-year foundation: 1) The company entered the hydrogen energy industry and set up a hydrogen energy fund to raise 10 billion dollars in the first round, and is expected to invest upstream and downstream of the hydrogen industry chain; 2) Compared with developed countries, China's hydrogen energy accounts for a small share of the overall energy structure and has a large development space: Europe, America, and Japan have already developed hydrogen energy applications in different industries, and the market size is expected to reach 10 trillion yuan by 2050; 3) Strong government support, policy dividends continue: In 2014, the country announced a reward of 4 million yuan for automobile hydrogen refueling stations. Hydrogen energy is an innovative technology. The investment proposal gives the company a target price of 7-8 yuan for the next 6-12 months, corresponding to 35-40 times the 17-year PE valuation. Risk warning PPP is falling short of expectations, and the hydrogen energy industry is developing slowly.

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