Key investment events: The company issued a revised announcement to the first-quarter results forecast: 2017Q1 had a profit of 4163-55.51 million yuan, an increase of 50-100% over the previous year. The investment income from the company's acquisition of Anton DMCC; and the overseas EPC project revenue that the company delayed in confirming in 2016 was confirmed in the first quarter, led to a significant increase in the company's profit level in 2017 Q1. The company previously invested more than 100 million shares in Andong Group. Anton Group's stock price declined significantly in the first quarter of 2017, which had a certain impact on the company's performance. Excluding the impact of this venture capital investment, the company expects the net profit of the main business in the first quarter of 2017 to increase by 110%-160% compared to the same period last year. Optimistic about the company's overseas market development, and expectations for overseas EPC orders are optimistic. Currently, the company's orders are mainly focused on overseas EPC projects, mainly from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. The company is still working hard to open up the African market this year. We expect positive order expectations in the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia and Africa markets. The company's performance in the first quarter of 2017 grew rapidly. We expect the 2017-2019 results to enter the fast track (1) EPC business: the company previously announced the US$148 million order for the Pakistan project, judging that 2/3 of the US$650 million order is expected to confirm revenue in 2017; Kazakhstan's RMB 270 million order announced at the beginning of the year is expected to confirm revenue in 2017, with a cumulative total of around 900 million yuan for these two. (2) The trend of new orders in 2017 is optimistic: we think there is a high probability that the EPC business will confirm revenue of 1 billion yuan for the full year of 2017. The net interest rate of the EPC project is close to 20%, and the profit contribution is estimated to be close to 200 million yuan. (3) Acquisition of Anton Oil Service's business in Iraq: Based on the performance promise of 136 million yuan, we judge that it may still exceed expectations. (4) Environmental protection business: Order expectations are optimistic, and performance is expected to exceed expectations. (5) Pipeline business: Strengthen the pipeline business through the acquisition of Woodpecker. Oil prices have been adjusted recently. We believe that the oil and gas equipment industry has moved from thematic investments in rising oil prices to fundamental investments. The cyclical inflection point of oil and gas equipment is very clear. We continue to be optimistic about medium- to long-term investment opportunities. In the field of oil and gas equipment, we are particularly optimistic about Hewlett-Packard, which has a high share of overseas performance, high performance growth, and a relatively low valuation. We believe Hewlett-Packard is the leader in this round of oil and gas equipment. The strategic cooperation between the company and Anton Oil Service has innovated the business model, and the company's overseas EPC orders will continue to grow at a high rate in the future. Currently, the company's market value is about 8 billion yuan. The company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.13/0.35/0.49 yuan, PE is 63/21/15 times, and it is recommended continuously! Risk warning: the risk of controlling shareholders' holdings reduction, the continued decline in international oil prices, the progress of overseas orders falling short of expectations, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and the development of environmental protection and pipeline inspection and maintenance business fell short of expectations.
惠博普(002554)点评:一季度业绩预增50-100%看好海外EPC订单、业绩高增长
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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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