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久其软件(002279)点评:母公司报表1亿净利润增速52% 更有弹性业绩产品线!

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 14, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: enjoy the policy dividends of government departments to “accumulate data assets and revitalize data value”! Key customer areas to form flexible big data product lines. 1) In the field of finance, it has covered the same platform for financial statements and asset management platforms. It has signed contracts with the Ministry of Finance for early pilot projects in Hunan Province, Yunnan Province, Tianjin City, and Chongqing City. It is expected that in '17, it is expected to promote the accounting big data application plan and expand other product lines nationwide. 2) In the transportation sector, contracts have been signed for emergency response data projects in 3 provinces, traffic data projects in 7 provinces, and transportation statistics projects in 21 provinces and cities. It is expected that the four major transportation platforms will continue to be tendered within 2-3 years. 3) In the judicial field, intelligent court inspection and intelligent voice trial systems have been launched, and a data analysis platform based on big data has been developed. The High Court has published important documents, and the construction of smart courts across the country has added incremental market space! 4) In the field of digital communication, big data and marketing are integrated, and the overseas promotion layout of more than 40 cities has been completed. In-depth report “5 major assessments confirm the new business cycle and raise the “buy” rating!” Proving that the parent company's statement caliber data is related to government business, the parent company reported a 43% increase in revenue and a 52% increase in net profit in the 2016 report. 1) The parent company's business comes directly from major customers such as ministries, departments, and central enterprises, reflecting the government cycle. The previous high point was the revenue growth rate of 53% in 2011. The reason is that in the two-generation software cycle, core business line software such as finance has gone from being centered on control to being data-centered! 2) In the 2016 annual report, the total net profit - 100 million yuan, Huaxia Telecom - Ruiyi Hengdong, was 75 million, and the operating profit was significantly higher than 75 million. The reason is that the parent company's reported net profit of 100 million yuan. Presumably, the reason is that some innovative subsidiaries were newly established in '16 and reduced in '17. Profit forecast for the first quarter in 10 years is positive for the first time! The median growth rate of 177% exceeded expectations! 2009-2016Q1 profits are -7.5, -7.6, -4.9, -33.8, -19.3, -16.3, -14.2, and -6.5 million yuan. The historical reason for all negative reasons is that the government business Q4 confirmed revenue. The accumulation of orders at the beginning of the year was difficult to reverse the cost distribution in the fourth quarter. The increase in 2016Q1 recalled that Lianhe Huaxia Dentsu's new business line did not change, and there was no new merger in 2017Q1, verifying a new round of high growth in government big data! Government Big Data is the leading stock in the 100 billion market space! The in-depth report on March 13 entered Jiuqi's software business line, focusing on the emergence of flexible business in government big data. Argument 1. The market was once concerned about long-term endogenous business. The 2016 annual report announced that the e-government revenue growth rate for Jiuqi's original two major business areas was 100.88% (including Huaxia Dentsu, excluding 42%), and that group control revenue grew by 34.08%. Endogenous stickiness can be estimated to continue to grow for 3 years. Argument 2: Net profit per capita increased 4 times, ROE increased 3 times, and internal and external collaboration clearly exceeded expectations. Argument 3: Construct a “Jiuqi+” big data strategy to lay out industries such as finance, education, civil affairs, transportation, administration of justice, and health. Big data on government affairs has driven a sharp increase in profits, and the core value is breaking through previous small market spaces such as finance and group control! Maintaining the “buy” rating and profit forecast, the net profit for 2017, 2018, and 2019 was 374 million, 462 million, and 575 million, and the corresponding PE in 2017 was 26X, and the valuation was at the bottom of history. The revenue growth rates for 2017/2018/2019 were 77%, 30%, 25%, and profit growth rates were 71%, 24%, and 25%. The corresponding PE was 26X, 21X, and 17X. Since cash mergers and acquisitions were transferred at the beginning of the year, the 17-year profit included the full year and was also reported in Shanghai Mobile. Using the industry average of 35 times dynamic PE, the corresponding market capitalization increase is 30%. Considering the low share of Q1 revenue, Q2 performance continues to exceed expectations and raise profit forecasts!

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