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阳光照明(600261)年报点评:Q4业绩低于预期 17年有望保持成长

興業證券 ·  Apr 13, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points The full-year performance was higher than the company's expectations, but slightly lower than our expectations: the company achieved a net profit of 452 million yuan in 2016, an increase of 21.67% over the previous year. Higher than the company's original estimate of $400 million, but lower than our original estimate of $487 million. Mainly due to asset impairment losses of 79.23 million yuan calculated in the fourth quarter, actual net profit of 97.46 million yuan was realized in the fourth quarter, down 4.15% from the previous year, which was lower than our expectations. We judge that the asset impairment losses calculated for LED equipment in the fourth quarter were mainly due to the accelerated depreciation of LED equipment, which is in line with the company's always prudent style. The 2017 performance is expected to continue to grow: the company's 2017 business plan is revenue of 5.451 billion yuan, an increase of 24% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 463 million yuan, which is basically the same as in 2016. Based on the company's business plan, which has always been conservative, and we are still in a period of rapid penetration into the industry (17-year penetration is 30%-40%), the market concentration of the industry is still increasing (the company's new channel expansion will expand in 17), and the company's judgment on its strong cost control ability, we believe that the company's net profit is likely to grow by 10%-15% in '17. LED lighting leaders enjoy the rapid penetration of LED and maintain the “buy” rating: LED lighting was still in a period of rapid penetration in '17 (penetration in 17 years was between 30%-40%), and the company continued to develop new channels, and its performance continued to grow. The company expects revenue of 5.451 billion yuan in 2017, and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to be 463 million yuan. Performance estimates are conservative. Judging from the rapid penetration of LED and the company's strong cost control capabilities, we believe that the company's net profit is expected to maintain a growth of 10%-15% in 2017, reaching about 500-52 million dollars. The 2017-2019 EPS is expected to be 0.35 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.43 yuan, corresponding to PE 20.8, 18.6, and 16.8 times. Risk warning: LED price decline exceeds expectations, channel layout is not progressing smoothly

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