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恒通股份(603223)点评:业绩略低于预期 看好未来LNG长期布局

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 12, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: The company's net profit in 2016 increased by 57.39% year-on-year, lower than our expectations. In 2016, the company's operating income was $2.166 billion (YOY +7.10%) and operating costs were $1,971 billion (YOY -12.65%). The company's profitability increased year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profit and loss was 507.8899 million yuan (YOY + 57.39%); net cash flow from operating activities was 956.41 million yuan (YOY -36.33%), which still exceeded the company's total profit. The main reason why the company's performance fell short of expectations was that management expenses rose 36.85% year on year, exceeding our forecast, mainly because: 1. The company's 16Q4 revenue increased a lot, which led to a simultaneous increase in management expenses; 2. The company's office expenses, labor costs, depreciation, etc. increased year on year. Company dividend situation: Cash dividends of 1.00 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares, and a total cash dividend of 12 million yuan (tax included). The LNG application industry chain was formed, and the gross profit level of the LNG business increased. In 2016, the company's logistics business grew 4.77%, and LNG sales business increased by 7.89%; the company's LNG transportation, wholesale trade, and gas station retail operations formed the LNG application industry chain. In 2016, the company's LNG trade and logistics business contributed 52.58% (30% in 2015A), while the gross profit share of the logistics transportation business fell to about 34.87% (56% in 2015A). The LNG trade logistics business is developing steadily. The gross margin of the company's LNG trade logistics business reached 7.89 percent (up 3.21 percentage points from the previous year); the gross margin of the logistics transportation business was 18.78% (down 4.86 percentage points from the previous year) due to the continued slump in the commodity industrial raw materials market environment. Continue to expand the LNG industry and be optimistic about the company's long-term development. According to the company's announcement on March 24, 2017, the company plans to raise 458 million yuan in non-public shares, of which 321 million yuan will be used for LNG logistics projects, 55.16 million yuan will be used for information technology upgrade projects, and another 82.46 million yuan will be used to supplement working capital. The company and Sinopec's natural gas company jointly established Huaheng Energy (the company accounts for 73% of the shares) to cooperate in LNG distribution. Sinopec has built receiving stations in Qingdao, Beihai, and Tianjin, all with a scale of 3 million tons. Among them, the joint venture of Xinao logistics companies responsible for distribution in the North Sea (the company accounts for 40% of the shares) achieved net profit of 8.61 million in 2016, and the Tianjin station will also launch layout this year. We believe that the volume of cooperative business with Sinopec has great potential to grow, and investment returns are expected to continue to grow. Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. The company is a scarce target in the logistics of LNG and even hazardous chemicals. Through cooperation with Sinopec, it is expected that Sinopec will establish subsidiaries and cooperate to expand offsite, becoming the leading domestic LNG transportation and distribution leader. Considering that the company's 16-year performance was lower than expected and the base was low, the expansion of the gross profit share of the LNG business may lower the gross profit margin, and the company's performance was greatly affected by gross margin, we lowered the company's earnings per share in 17-19 to 0.69 yuan and 1.00 yuan respectively (0.93 yuan and 1.26 yuan before adjustment, respectively) and gave a profit forecast of 1.30 yuan for the year 19. After considering the fixed increase and dilution, the earnings per share for 17-19 were 0.61 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.56 yuan (corresponding PE is 49X, 34X, and 26X), respectively. We are still optimistic about the company's future development potential and maintain the company's “buy” rating.

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