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中储股份(600787)跟踪报告:主营业绩扭亏 二次混改预期强烈

興業證券 ·  Apr 10, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: The company announced the results announcement for the first quarter of 2017. According to estimates, the company expects net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies to be reduced by about 80% in the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period last year (229 million yuan). Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profits and losses is expected to be around 27 million yuan in the first quarter of 2017. Compared with the same period last year, it has turned a loss into a profit. Comment: The company's business operations have improved. Land storage in the same period last year was the main reason for the decline in performance. From the perspective of deducting non-net profit, the company's net profit for the same period last year was -4.27 million yuan, and this year, benefiting from the recovery in commodity prosperity, the company's corresponding commodity logistics main business also benefited. Profit improved, reaching 27 million yuan during the same period, an increase of more than 30 million yuan, reflecting the gradual reversal of the fundamentals of the company's operating performance. However, the main reason for the 80% decline in the current performance forecast is that China Material Storage and Transportation Tianjin Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, confirmed revenue of 3.1 billion yuan from the deposit of part of the land it owns, resulting in high non-recurring income for the same period last year. The joint venture subsidiary established with Prologis has basically been implemented, and the initial mixed reform has already taken the first step. As early as August 5, 2014, GLP (GLP) invested 2 billion yuan in shares, became the company's second largest shareholder, accounting for 15.39%, and signed a letter of intent for in-depth cooperation, agreeing to cooperate with the company to establish a joint venture subsidiary, mainly targeting the development, investment and management of logistics real estate business. At present, the rules and agreements on the joint venture cooperation between the two sides have been basically completed. Mo Zhiming and Wei Guang, senior executives of Prologue, also joined the China Reserve in 2016 as vice chairman and deputy general manager, respectively, and became company executives. We expect that the progress of the joint venture subsidiary at this stage has entered the final decision-making process, and that breakthrough results will soon be achieved in the establishment and promotion. The first step of the company's early mixed reform was basically practical, laying a good foundation for further progress in the future. The parent company, Chengtong Group, is the sponsor of the National Mixed Reform Fund. The company has expectations for further mixed reform. The company's parent company, Chengtong Group, as the main sponsor of the “China State-owned Enterprise Structural Adjustment Fund,” is a national mixed reform platform whose main function is to invest and guide state-owned enterprises to carry out structural reforms. With its status as a subsidiary of Chengtong Group, and because it is in hot industries related to logistics, warehousing, and real estate, which is strongly supported by the state, there is a high possibility that it will be the target of the first batch of mixed reform pilots. Also, considering that the “Internet+Logistics” next-generation freight matching business currently being vigorously promoted by the company has changed the company's business structure, which is highly consistent with the ideas of the Structural Adjustment Fund, future mixed reform expectations will continue to be maintained. “China Storage Intelligent Transport” has created a new “Internet+Logistics” model, and in line with the “structural adjustment” of the mixed industry, China Storage Intelligent Transport is an emerging platform for the company's “Internet + Logistics”. It mainly aims to solve the problem of empty vehicle loading in logistics, reduce waste of capacity through Internet matching, match cargo owners with car owners, and ultimately achieve the goal of improving logistics efficiency. The company currently positions it as the “leader” of China Reserve's future transformation and upgrading. Judging from the sales model, the company does not adopt the “small customer+individual vehicle” C-side promotion model, but instead focuses on large customers, including large upstream customer owners and downstream large truck companies, to carry out delivery services in the form of “car-free carriers”. At the same time, use the company's original industry reputation and customer resources to sign new customers or transfer existing customers to the platform. Although this sales method still requires relative subsidies to new users, it avoids the large-scale promotion costs common to Internet companies, and at the same time, contracts with large customers also guarantee the scale of revenue. We expect that under this premise, the company's revenue will grow steadily, while the cost side will remain basically the same, and ultimately, profit will be released one after another due to the scale effect. The “Xiong'an New Area” concept was catalyzed, and the company's land value was once again highlighted. Accelerating the return of stock price value was stimulated by the “Xiong'an New Area” concept. China Reserve shares rose and stopped strongly last week. The biggest characteristic of China Savings Co., Ltd. is that there are many land resources distributed throughout the country. We have sorted out China Reserve's land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The main situation is as follows: We have always emphasized that the reasonable equity value of nearly 10 million square meters of land operated by the company (about 7 million square meters of property rights for listed companies) is about 31 billion yuan, and the company's stock price is clearly underestimated. This time, the Xiong'an New Area catalyst may accelerate the return of the company's stock price value. Profit forecasting and valuation. Although the company still has a large amount of potential land demolition compensation in the future, due to uncertainty about progress, we are not considering it yet. It is estimated that the EPS from 2016 to 2018 will be 0.35 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.37 yuan respectively, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning. Continued macroeconomic downturn affects the company's main commodity logistics business; development progress of commercial real estate projects is slower than expected; and the costs required for logistics business transformation are too high.

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