Forecast profit growth year-on-year-15-15%
Ketai Power supply issued a forecast for the first quarter of 2017, which is expected to increase the net profit of shareholders of listed companies by-15% to 663.51 million RMB 8.9769 million yuan, basically in line with expectations.
Pay attention to the main points
The revenue of generator sets grew steadily, and the gross profit margin declined slightly. The company's orders performed well in the first quarter of 2017, revenue continued to grow, and it is expected to continue to expand market share in the data center sector. In overseas markets, Hong Kong Tide Power, the generator maker acquired by the company, is expected to contribute more than 5 million yuan in net profit (performance commitment) in 2017. However, as the purchase of engines is mainly from imports, the gross profit margin of products has declined compared with the same period last year due to the influence of exchange rate, resulting in lower profit growth than income growth.
The electric logistics vehicle rental business will contribute to performance in 2017, but there is still uncertainty. The state subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has been formally introduced, and the subsidy for special-purpose vehicles is in line with expectations.
Although the company's car purchase cost may rise, in view of the cost advantage of electric vehicles and the strong demand of express delivery companies for electric replacement of logistics vehicles, after the announcement of the three batches of subsidy catalogue, the company's leasing business has progressed steadily, and plans to add 3000 to 4,000 vehicles in 2017, which will begin to gradually contribute to profits. At the same time, the company will continue to invest in the new energy vehicle industry chain, which is expected to provide performance flexibility in the future. However, as the industry needs to go through a period of adjustment after the subsidy retreat and the new energy vehicle catalogue review period, the company's logistics vehicle rental business and follow-up investment progress is still uncertain.
Valuation and suggestion
We keep our profit forecast unchanged. Maintain the target price of 15.32 yuan (based on the segment valuation method, corresponding to 2017 Universe 18-year 69max 49x Pamp E). The current share price of the company corresponds to the 2017 / 18 71Compact 50x Pmax E, the valuation is still relatively high and the neutral rating is maintained.
Risk.
The promotion of electric logistics vehicle operation has slowed down; overseas business expansion is lower than expected.