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山河智能(002097)事件点评:一季度业绩预告发布 基本符合预期

國海證券 ·  Mar 31, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  Event: On the evening of March 30, 2017, the company released its performance forecast for the first quarter of 2017. It is estimated that net profit for the period will be 6695-73.64 million yuan, an increase of 400%-450% over the previous year. Key investment points: Demand in the construction machinery market is booming, and the performance of the company's equipment sector has achieved significant growth. The boom in the construction machinery industry continues to pick up due to increased infrastructure investment and incremental demand brought about by the gradual liquidation of the used mobile phone market in the industry. In January and February 2017, the sales volume of excavators in China reached 4547 units and 14,530 units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 54% and 298%, respectively. In the context of the overall recovery of the industry, the company's construction machinery performance is expected to continue to grow. Also, AVMax significantly increased the company's performance. The company completed the acquisition of 60% of AvMax's shares on October 10, 2016, and the latter has been included in the scope of the company's consolidated statements since October 1, 2016. AVMax is a North American regional aircraft MRO company. It has high-quality assets of more than 120 aircraft and is extremely capable of monetization. According to performance versus gambling conditions, the minimum performance limit for 2017 is 230 million yuan in net profit. As AvMax's performance grows steadily, the company's performance will increase. Maintain a “buy” rating. Considering that the company has not yet received written approval documents from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, based on prudential principles, we have divided our profit forecasts into two situations: (1) without considering the acquisition of AvMax, the company's net profit for 2016-18 is expected to be 0.80, 2.13, and 251 million yuan respectively; (2) under the premise of considering the phased acquisition of AvMax, the company's net profit in 2016-18 is expected to be 1.03, 3.97, and 490 million yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS is 0.10, 0.38, and 0.46 yuan respectively. Each share, based on the closing price of 8.95 yuan on March 30, 2017, corresponds to 91, 24, and 19 times PE, respectively. The company has now formed a dual business pattern of construction machinery+aviation aftermarket. Future performance is expected to continue to grow and maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Construction machinery performance continues to fall sharply below expectations; non-operating income falls short of expectations; policies related to the aviation industry fall short of expectations; AvMax's business performance has declined sharply; and the acquisition process is uncertain.

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