Event: the company released its 2016 annual report and first-quarter 2017 results on March 29.
The comments are as follows:
The year-on-year decline of 23.49% was slightly lower than expected, with medium-and short-term pressure. The company released its annual report in 2016, and its operating income for the whole year was 517 million yuan, down 5.18% from the same period last year. The net profit attributed to the shareholders of the listed company was 30 million yuan, down 23.49% from the same period last year, corresponding to EPS 0.10 yuan. The company's revenue in the fourth quarter was 158 million, down 10.48% from the same period last year, up 17% from the previous quarter, and the net profit returned to the home was 9 million, down 17% from the same period last year and an increase of 28.57% from the previous year. Overall, the company's performance is slightly lower than the-20% lower limit announced by KuaiBao in the previous period, and the forecast for the first quarter is still between-20% and 0%. We believe that the main reason is that, on the one hand, from the current disclosure of the annual reports of pharmaceutical listed companies, the overall performance is under pressure, and the overall medical equipment industry is weak. On the other hand, subsidiary Hangzhou Longxin is not included in the consolidated statement, the reduction of sales income of agency products caused by the development of self-produced products by parent companies and subsidiaries, the early capital investment caused by overseas high-quality projects, and the financial expenses caused by bank loans, liquid biopsy control and other medical research and development have a greater impact on the company's short-term net profit.
Around the five major product lines, the company actively creates a large group model of products and services. In the past three years, the company has been in a year of change. It has decided to build five product lines: clinical laboratory specimen solution and diagnosis platform, imaging diagnosis platform, nursing and anesthetic product platform, biomedical and pharmaceutical intermediate product platform, and health management platform. accelerate the formation of the overall digital solution of the hospital, and at the same time "enter the medical service field" into the core strategy of the next decade, from the perspective of specific business:
The company's core business medical laboratory diagnostic products are growing steadily, and the IMPROReadyTM hospital intelligent blood collection management system was launched in 2012, which is in the stage of rapid development.
The overall digital solution of the hospital is mainly accelerated by epitaxial acquisition, such as the overall delivery capacity, project compliance rate and project delivery time of the Guangzhou Huiqiao project acquired by the company in 2015 far exceed the industry level.
Medical service construction gradually realizes the integration of "medical products and medical services" through the rapid development of the overall relocation (PPP) project of Yizhang County traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital.
Precision therapy product line is mainly thromboelastogram detection system to meet the needs of customers for products with different performance-to-price ratio.
Relying on experts and overseas resources, the demand for extension mergers and acquisitions is the first opportunity. The period from 2016 to 2018 has been identified as an important period for the company's reform. around the five major business platforms, the company has actively carried out extension mergers and acquisitions at home and abroad in the areas of medical services, such as big diagnosis, big medical care, and great health. according to the relevant announcement, the company has established a 600 million yuan M & A fund with Tiande Ronghui, Yanghe Biology as early as 15 years to prepare for extension M & A. And the company acquired Shenzhen Ruiguang Kangtai Technology in the third quarter to implement the company's strategy of building a health management platform, laying the foundation for the company's long-term development in the field of family health products, and the company will continue to increase M & An activities around five strategic platforms.
Profit forecast: taking into account that the company's performance is lower than expected and the progress of its main products is lower than expected, we forecast that the revenue of 17Gram18 in the next two years will be 5.86 and 676 million respectively, an increase of 13.32% and 15.41% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit attributed to the parent company will be 4839 and 67.09 million respectively, up 58.76% and 38.65% respectively over the same period last year, corresponding to EPS of 0.157 and 0.217. At the same time, in the medium to long term, based on the rich experience of the company's management and the strategic layout of "Medical Information + Medical Services" and the successive launch of internal and external activities in the next three years of revolution, we give the company a comprehensive valuation of 86 PE for 17 years, and carefully recommend it to the "hold" rating corresponding to the target price of RMB13.48 (down 1.97).
Risk reminder event: expansion risk of medical service field; extension M & A risk; overseas market sales risk