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广弘控股(000529)简报:经营持续向好 地价重估提供极高安全边际

光大證券 ·  Mar 30, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Event: In 2016, the company achieved operating income of 2,067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.23%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 106 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.65%, and EPS of 0.18 yuan. At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share to all shareholders based on the total share capital of 584 million shares at the end of 2016, for a total distribution of 26.27 million yuan in cash dividends. Comment: The company's main business currently includes food management and book distribution. Since completing the mixed ownership reform at the end of 2015, there has been a marked improvement in business performance. The overall gross margin of the company's food business increased by 3.3 percentage points in 2016, which is the main reason for the rapid increase in the company's net profit. Among them, sales of poultry raised achieved revenue of 9161 million yuan, and the gross margin changed from negative to positive. Breeding pigs, pork pigs, and pig fry sales achieved a total revenue of 87.74 million yuan, and the average gross margin increased significantly by about 30%. In addition, revenue from core businesses such as frozen goods sales and cold storage operations increased slightly compared to last year, with a total revenue of about 151 million yuan; the gross margin of cold storage operations reached 45.10%, a continued increase of nearly 4 percentage points over last year. In terms of education, the company's book distribution revenue has maintained steady growth, achieving revenue of 903 million yuan, an increase of 6.70%, and gross margin of 18.78%, which is basically the same as last year. Business continues to improve, and land price revaluation provides a margin of safety: In 2016, “Guanghong Frozen Meat” was launched at the Guangdong International Commodity Exchange Center. The company became the first domestic company to launch “frozen meat products” on a commodity spot trading platform, and the influence of frozen products is expected to continue to grow. The company's “cold storage+market” business model continues to transform into a high-end cold chain logistics center, and the position of the cold chain logistics industry in the province can be further stabilized. Furthermore, the company continues to promote the implementation of a library information system, laying a good foundation for subsequent textbook distribution qualification applications and system construction. Currently, the company still holds three plots of vacant land located in Guangzhou, Zhongshan, and Foshan. After the conversion of industry to commercial housing and housing, it will bring the company more than 8 billion yuan in cash, and the margin of safety is extremely high. The target price is 13 yuan, upgraded to the “buy” rating: We predict that the company's EPS from 2017 to 2019 will be 0.22 yuan, 0.25 yuan, 0.28 yuan, respectively, and the target price will be 13 yuan, which will be upgraded to the “buy” rating. Risk warning: risk of food safety; risk of land monetization not progressing as expected.

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