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大地传媒(000719)深度报告:传统出版企业布局大出版、大教育初见规模

招商證券 ·  Mar 20, 2017 00:00  · Researches

  The company is based in Henan, a province with a large population, and is deeply involved in the publishing business. Since 2014, the company's business has gradually been skewed towards distribution, and a large publishing digital industry system has been established around “three centers” and “five platforms”. As the reform of state-owned enterprises deepens, the company is actively experimenting with epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, and is expected to form strong collaborations with existing businesses in the future. We are optimistic about the company's development prospects. The current stock price is only 18 times PE in '17, giving it a “Highly Recommended - A” rating for the first time. A leading publishing and media company in Henan Province, with huge scale and strong strength. The company is the only listed cultural enterprise in Henan Province. It is also the banner for cultural system reform and cultural industry development in Henan Province. It enjoys comprehensive policy support from the national strategy in terms of finance, taxation, land, talent, and business activities. The main business includes publishing, distribution, material sales, and printing. Since 2014, the scale of the company's distribution business has gradually increased, and the scale of the printing business has gradually decreased. Future revenue growth points depend on the construction of a digital publishing industry system and a larger education system. The concept of state-owned enterprise reform continues to ferment, and the company is actively experimenting with epitaxial mergers and acquisitions. The growth rate of the traditional publishing and distribution industry has been slowing down in recent years, and superimposed state-owned enterprise reform policies have continued to be introduced. The company has successively experimented with outward mergers and acquisitions in the fields of film, television, integrated marketing, etc. We believe that with the stabilization of the leadership team, the company is expected to continue actively experimenting with epitaxial mergers and acquisitions based in Henan, and strive to effectively combine the company's resource advantages with new business to achieve transformation. Establish a “big publishing” digital publishing industry system around “three centers” and “five platforms”. The “three centers” include a planning center, an editing center, and a processing center. The “five platforms” include a contract submission platform, a digital content resource management platform, an on-demand printing platform, a Yunshu.com e-commerce platform, and a digital logistics platform. Among them, contract submission platforms and digital content resource management platforms have provided an operational foundation for the entire industrial system, and have also spawned the production of digital content, e-commerce platforms, and digital logistics platforms to expand online sales channels. In addition, the company is also involved in cultural real estate and expanding the cultural industry chain. The company's “Big Publishing” industrial system has completed its layout. The pattern is clear, the division of labor is clear, and it has formed a closed loop on its own, and its profitability is expected to be further enhanced. Company profit forecasting and investment ratings. We expect the company's revenue in 2016-18 to be 7.8 billion yuan/8.09 billion yuan, and net profit to mother will be 710 million/73 million/750 million yuan respectively; earnings per share will be 0.7/0.72/0.73 yuan, respectively, corresponding PE 18.6/18.1/17.6 times. The company was given a target price of 15 yuan for 6 months, and the company was given a “Highly Recommended” rating for the first time. Risk warning: risk of slow growth of the company's traditional main business; risk of delayed mergers and acquisitions and new business transformation.

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