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【华泰证券】国盛金控:业绩略低于承诺,互联网金控发展可期

華泰證券 ·  Feb 28, 2017 00:00  · Researches

After the restructuring was completed, performance improved dramatically, and the pace of transformation accelerated. In 2016, listed companies achieved net profit of 498 million yuan and operating income of 1,642 billion yuan, respectively +1804% and +56% year-on-year. Dividend of 0.2 yuan per share. Guosheng Securities achieved net profit of 570 million yuan and operating income of 1,187 billion yuan for the whole year, with consolidated statements of 458 million yuan and 822 million yuan respectively. The company announced in November 2015 that it would acquire 100% of Guosheng Securities's shares through a private offering. The merger of Guosheng Securities's performance was the main reason for the sharp improvement in the company's performance. In the restructuring plan, Zhongjiang Trust promised that Guosheng Securities's 2016-2018 net profit would not be less than 740 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 850 million yuan, and the completion rate of Guosheng Securities's performance commitment in 2016 was 82.19%. According to the performance commitment agreement, Zhongjiang Trust will accumulate difference compensation in subsequent performance commitment years. The share of the brokerage market has increased markedly, and the scale of bond financing has increased dramatically. Guosheng Securities plans to reshape its own structure through the Internet mindset to create an Internet O2O model with Chinese characteristics. Currently, the company is actively developing an Internet business model, with an annual stock trading volume of 1264.7 billion yuan and a market share of 0.45%, a significant increase from 0.37% in 2015. The brokerage business achieved net revenue of 445 million yuan throughout the year. Guosheng Securities completed 5 bond underwriting projects throughout the year, with a principal underwriting amount of 4.67 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 678% over the previous year. No equity underwriting projects. The investment banking business achieved net revenue of 98 million yuan throughout the year. The level of capital has increased dramatically, and there is plenty of room for capital intermediaries in the future. As of the end of December 2016, Guosheng Securities had a balance of 2,215 billion yuan, with a market share of 0.24%, ranking 64th. In 2016, Guosheng Securities had a pledged market value of 4.9 billion yuan, ranking 64th in the industry. Net interest income of 268 million yuan was achieved throughout the year. In 2016, Guosheng Financial Holdings raised nearly 11 billion yuan in capital through fixed increases and bond issuance, of which nearly 6.4 billion yuan was used for Guosheng Securities, which to a certain extent alleviated the net capital constraints and insufficient working capital problems of Guosheng Securities. In the future, Guosheng Securities will make full use of the platforms of listed companies to connect with the capital market, and after the capital level is expanded, it will further open up business space, so there is great potential for future development. Involved in the fields of securities, insurance, consumer finance, etc., financial control platforms are quite large. Guosheng Financial Holdings is transforming financial control at an accelerated pace. In addition to Guosheng Securities, in August 2015, the company established Huasheng Investment and actively deployed RMB and foreign currency equity investment management platforms. The company has successively announced that it plans to participate in initiating the establishment of Junan Life Insurance and Bai'an Internet Insurance, taking into account traditional insurers and Internet insurers, and the company's layout in the insurance field is basically in one step. In September 2016, it was announced that it plans to acquire 6% of the shares of Beijing Happy Times and enter the consumer finance sector. An Internet microfinance company was established in November 2016 to explore the application of innovative technological methods such as Internet big data and cloud computing in financial scenarios. Currently, the Internet microfinance company is actively preparing for establishment. I am optimistic about the development prospects of the Internet financial control platform, maintain that securities, venture capital, and Internet insurance owned by rating companies that have increased their holdings have good development prospects, and the synergy between various business lines is obvious. The development direction of the Internet+financial control model is clear, and shareholders' resource advantages promote business development. At the same time, the company's market value in circulation is small. After deducting the shares held by Phoenix Finance, it is about 2 billion yuan, which is quite flexible. Be optimistic about the development prospects of Internet financial control, and raise the profit forecast in line with the company's performance in 2016. The 2017-2019 EPS is expected to be 0.81, 1.00, and 1.20 respectively, and the corresponding PE is 38, 31, and 26, respectively, maintaining the increase rating. Risk warning: Business development falls short of expectations, risk of market fluctuations.

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