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【广发证券】中孚实业:煤电铝一体化优势将继续显现

廣發證券 ·  Feb 27, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Benefiting from the rising price of aluminum and the advantages of coal, electricity and aluminum integration, in the report “One of the Asset-Heavy Series (Aluminum): Ready to Go” released on February 6, we explained that aluminum, as one of the six major industries with excess capacity, is in urgent need of supply-side reforms, or change the pattern of weak balance between supply and demand to drive up aluminum prices. The company has a complete industrial chain integrating coal, electricity and aluminum. The main product is electrolytic aluminum, and cost is the key. As the coal self-sufficiency rate increases (capacity utilization rate was only 29% in 15 years), the company's integrated advantages of coal, electricity and aluminum will continue to show. The advantages of coal, electricity and aluminum integration will continue to show that the company has a complete industrial chain of “coal-electricity/carbon-electrolytic aluminum-aluminum processing”. The core product is electrolytic aluminum, and the cost is the key. The company's alumina is all outsourced, the electricity self-sufficiency rate is 74%, and the carbon self-sufficiency rate is 54%. The future cost changes will mainly come from the increase in the coal self-sufficiency rate. The company's coal production capacity in 2015 is 2.25 million tons, output 660,000 tons, and 100,000 tons of self-consumption. The capacity utilization rate is 29%, and there is plenty of room for improvement in the future. The advantages of integrated coal, electricity and aluminum will continue to show. Electrolytic aluminum has benefited from rising aluminum prices, and deep processing has released the company's electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 740,000 tons. In the context of expected supply-side reforms, aluminum prices may rise in the future, and the company's electrolytic aluminum business has clearly benefited. The volume and price of the aluminum business has risen sharply: 1) In 2015, the production capacity of aluminum increased by 350,000 tons to 750,000 tons, and the production capacity utilization rate will continue to increase; 2) in 2015, the difference between the company's aluminum sales price and the price of aluminum ingots was about 400 yuan//ton, and in Q1 2016 it had already increased to 791 yuan//ton. The investment proposal predicts that aluminum prices may rise in the future, aluminum production will increase, and processing costs will rise. It is estimated that the company's EPS for 16-18 will be 0.04 yuan, 0.22 yuan, and 0.37 yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price will be 155 times, 28 times, and 17 times, respectively, giving the company a “buy” rating. Risk warning: the progress of supply-side reforms is lower than expected, and the release of production capacity is lower than expected;

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