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【西南证券】浙江众成:POF膜老树新花,新项目落地在即

西南證券 ·  Feb 13, 2017 00:00  · Researches

The investment point company is one of the world's leaders in POF heat shrinkable film. Since its establishment, the company has been committed to developing a new series of polyolefin shrink film products. Currently, most of the series products produced by the company are pioneered in China. The product quality has reached the leading international level, making it one of the most professional and largest polyolefin shrink film manufacturers in the world. POF heat shrinkable film products can be subdivided into three categories and eight series: POF ordinary film, POF high performance film, and POF crosslinked film. Currently, the sales revenue and gross profit of the company's three categories of products all account for more than 95%, which is the main source of the company's revenue and profit. Heat-shrinkable film belongs to the plastic packaging industry and is gradually becoming the mainstream trend in the plastic packaging industry, while POF heat-shrinkable film is the “darling” of the entire plastic packaging industry. Adapt to the development of the industry and optimize the main product structure. In recent years, competition for POF ordinary film products has become increasingly fierce, and gross margin has declined year by year, while the price and gross profit of high-performance films and cross-linked heat shrinkable films are high, making them high-end products of POF film. In line with the development requirements of the industry, the company began to actively adjust the product structure, and took the lead in developing high-end products such as POF crosslinked films in China. With the continuous promotion of POF crosslinked film, its revenue share has surpassed that of POF ordinary film for 16 years. We believe that the continuous optimization of the company's product structure is still ongoing to protect the steady development of the company's main business. Invest in the construction of “high performance functional polypropylene film trial production projects” and “thermoplastic high elastomers” projects to provide rich profit margins. The company announced on May 20, 2015, that in order to enrich and expand the company's product structure, the company plans to use its own investment to build a “high performance polypropylene film trial production project” to further optimize the product structure, form a good situation where multiple main products of high-performance functional polypropylene film and POF polyolefin heat shrink film develop together, and enhance the company's sustainable development capabilities. Moreover, the company plans to raise no more than 400 million dollars to invest in the construction of a thermoplastic elastomer project with an annual output of 120,000 tons. The construction period of the project is 1.5 years, and it is expected that it will be in use in June 2017. The thermoplastic elastomer material production project with an annual output of 120,000 tons is expected to achieve an average annual sales revenue of 2.96 billion yuan and a total annual profit of about 1 billion yuan, which will greatly enhance the company's profitability. Profit forecast and rating: Regardless of additional mergers and acquisitions, the company's 2016-2018 EPS is expected to be 0.14 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.79 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 119 times, 87 times, and 21 times, respectively, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations, risk of thermoplastic high elastomer projects not progressing as expected, risk of high performance functional polypropylene film trial production projects falling short of expectations.

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