Jin'an Guoji is the leading manufacturer of medium- and heavy-duty copper-clad plates in China. We judge that the copper clad plate industry is entering a boom cycle that has continued for a long time. The company's Q3 performance has exceeded expectations. Recently, the company has drastically revised its 16-year performance forecast to verify our industry views. In the current situation where there is a shortage of copper foil and glass fiber and prices are rising, we can expect another increase in the value of copper clad plates after the Spring Festival. The company's customer structure, pricing mechanism, and the release of production capacity will help it become a flexible breed in this boom cycle. The future extension strategy will continue to advance to further enhance the company's performance and valuation flexibility. We expect the company's 16/17/18 EPS to be 0.47/0.96/1.25 yuan, corresponding PE is 36/17/13 times, and there is still room for profit increase. For the first time, it was given a “Highly Recommended” rating, and the target price was 23 yuan. The 16-year performance forecast has been drastically revised, and it is a resilient variety in the booming copper-clad plate cycle. The company is the second-largest copper-clad plate enterprise in the country, and its main business accounts for 98.08% of the copper-clad plate business. On January 17, the company released a revised 2016 performance forecast. Net profit for the full year of 2016 was revised to a net profit range of 325 to 352 million, with a year-on-year increase of 500 to 550%. Net profit for the fourth quarter was estimated at 181 million yuan by the median range, a sharp increase of 153% over the third quarter of 71.52 million, and a year-on-year increase of 2160%, fully verifying the flexibility of the industry's performance due to the compounding of multiple price increases since the third quarter. In particular, the low season since the fourth quarter has not abated, and industry supply is tight, confirming our judgment in the 23-page in-depth industry report at the beginning of this month. The shortage of standard copper foil continues, and the recent tightness of glass fiber is expected to push the price of copper clad plate one step further. Demand for a large amount of copper foil has been added to lithium batteries, and there is a bottleneck in the overall copper foil supply. There is a gap in the overall copper foil supply and has entered a price increase cycle. Also, due to the fact that many standard copper foil factories have switched to lithium copper foil and built new production capacity, the supply of label foil is even tighter. We have learned that the price of copper foil has risen to 100,000 per month, and is expected to continue to be in short supply for 17 years. Glass fiber is another major material for copper clad plates, because the factory went into a kiln shutdown maintenance cycle, and the repair cycle was generally half a year long. The increase in the price of fiberglass cloth is expected to once again promote copper-clad panels after the Spring Festival Prices are rising, and copper-clad plates are entering a very continuous period of high boom in price increases. The company's customer structure helps to increase the flexibility of price increases, and production capacity is constantly expanding in line with the price increase cycle. The company's customer structure is scattered, with the top five customers accounting for only 4.84%. The customer structure, which is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, helps the company to raise product prices in a timely manner to achieve price transmission and profit growth. By the end of 2016, the total production capacity of the company's three production bases in Zhuhai, Shanghai and Hangzhou reached 42 million sheets/year. With the Hangzhou Phase II production base being put into operation in 2007, the company's total production capacity is expected to reach more than 50 million sheets/year. Furthermore, recently, the company's electronic-grade glass fiber cloth project with an annual output of 20.16 million meters was officially put into operation, and the additional production capacity will also increase the company's performance space. In the boom cycle of copper-clad panels, the company's high performance growth in 17 years is worth looking forward to. Highly recommended for first-time coverage, target price 23 yuan. We are firmly optimistic about the sustainability of this high boom cycle in the copper foil and copper clad plate industry. Jin'an's customer structure and pricing mechanism will help it become an elastic breed in this high boom cycle. It can be seen from the 16Q4 performance exceeding expectations. At the same time, the company's outreach strategy continues to advance, which is expected to further enhance performance and valuation flexibility. We expect the company's 16/17/18 EPS to be 0.47/0.96/1.25 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 36/17/13 times. If the boom in '17 is based on our judgment, there is still room for an increase in profit. For the first time, we have given a “Highly Recommended” rating, and the target price is 23 yuan. Risk warning: The boom in the industry fell short of expectations, and the company's new production capacity fell short of expectations.
【招商证券】金安国纪:高景气覆铜板周期中的弹性品种
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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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