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【长江证券】银龙股份:全年业绩维稳,多点开花值得期待

長江證券 ·  Jan 17, 2017 00:00  · Researches

Key points of the report describe the events described in the Yinlong Stock Follow-up Review Report. Incident review Infrastructure investment continued to increase, and performance remained stable throughout 2016: the company's main business scope includes two major products: prestressed steel products and ballastless track boards for high-speed rail, of which the annual production capacity of prestressed steel products reached 500,000 tons. The company is the world's largest supplier of prestressed concrete steel. At the same time, the company is the main R&D unit for CRTSIII advanced ballastless track boards, and participated in the whole process from product concept design, sample testing to final mass production. Therefore, it has a comparative advantage in track board development technology and order acceptance. Benefiting from the continued boom in the infrastructure sector, the company's performance for the full year of 2016 is expected to be stable: the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first 11 months of 2016 reached 17.21%. Among them, the company's prestressed steel investment growth in the downstream water conservancy and road sectors reached 20.20% and 16.90% respectively during the same period, both maintained the mid-high level in recent years. Furthermore, although the country's railway fixed asset investment declined slightly by 2.71% in 2016, the high-speed rail sector is more popular as a relatively high-end manufacturing industry. The country's high-speed rail operating mileage increased 1.34 percentage points by 1.34 percentage points in total operating mileage To 17.74%, at the same time, the company has comparative advantages such as ballastless track board technology and certification, and has obtained market orders within the industry or may be more lucrative, so the track board business is also likely to become another major source of stable performance throughout the year. The main business is steady, and the diversified layout is expected to blossom: against the backdrop of the gradual weakening of the real estate sector, infrastructure investment continues to increase or become a major hedging tool for the government to regulate steady economic growth. The relative prosperity in the infrastructure sector brought about by this is expected to provide important support for the company to maintain stable production and sales of pre-stressed steel products. At the same time, the “13th Five-Year Plan” plans add 11,000 kilometers of high-speed rail mileage in five years, and the addition of 2,162 kilometers of high-speed rail mileage in 2016 is basically in line with the average annual level of the five-year plan. Therefore, it is expected that the increase in high-speed rail mileage will probably remain stable in the later stages, thus creating a stable demand market for the company's high-speed rail track board products. In terms of diversified business, the company closely follows downstream development trends and adjusts fund-raising projects in a timely manner. In order to meet the needs of the domestic subway construction and export markets, the company plans to add a 3,000-ton steel strand production line and build a new 20,000 ton galvanized product production line to enter the bridge cable market. Furthermore, the company's prestressed concrete steel wire products obtained the China Nuclear Power Group's qualified supplier certificate on August 22, 2016. As the future nuclear power construction process is restarted and gradually accelerated, the company is expected to expand its business into the field of nuclear power with huge potential, thus creating a new profit growth point for the company's business performance. Overall, in the future, the company is expected to blossom more on the basis of consolidating its main business, thereby achieving long-term stable business development. The company's 2016 and 2017 EPS are expected to be 0.34 yuan and 0.37 yuan, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk tips: 1. Demand in the steel industry has fluctuated beyond expectations.

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